Thursday, October 2, 2014

Hyderabad Derby Day


D Day is here

I welcome all members of HT and other racing patrons which have descended on city of nawabs to witness Deccan Derby.Card is very good and hope you all return with smile

Race1:Galiat(1)-Win

Class towers over all other factors.Galiat has class and should be able to win inspite of welter weight it is carrying.

Stable mate Power Drive won very impressively in last outing and has good chance to finish second

Race2:Catherine(11)-Win

Ignore last run of Catherine due to whip loss,earlier very impressive winner,has very good chance to win

Coral Springs has been fine tuned for this event,will run a bold race and should be in 1-2

Note Aware who is getting preferrential handicap reduction,can upset any day

City of Dreams will place at lucrative odds

Race3:Musk Melon(4)-Win

I ignore 3 yrs olds who run with Blks and 3 yrs old who run in class 4 immediately after winning in maidens

Musk Melon ran unextended in last two runs over wrong distance,has very good chance over this trip

Upon A star is improving but not sighted in tracks after last run

Race4:Vijay Sakhi(7)-Win

Again here in this class i avoid horses which come directly after clearing maidens.

Preferences shud be given to horses which did not win in maidens race but ran on board.

Vijay Sakhi who gave good forward run in last race over 1800mts has been tracked by trainer himself which clearly shows it is on job,can win

Rubyonrails last failure as fav can be ignored,will be in strong contention,should be in 1-2

Mrinalini is working well,can place at longer odds

Race5:Cornawallis(3)-Win

Cornawallis is in great form and has good chance to repeat even in this higher class

Ld Silva has placed 3 runners.

Laurel Canyon though in long in tooth in comparision to stablemates but has class to atleast place

Race6:Modern Sniper(3)-Win

Class has to be determined here.

Desire and Modern Sniper are the horses which have run in class 2 immediately after clearing maidens,hence they are better than others.

Desire is a bit moody and likes to come off the pace,may falter over this shorter trip,hence iam preferring modern Sniper who has class to upset.

Jackpot hunters can opt for duo of this two

Race7:Green Jewel(1)-Win

Keeping the logic that 3 yrs old cannot win in class 4 immediately after clearing maidens iam preferrring Green Jewel who now looks well set to win in this shorter trip on No False Rails Day

Jackpot hunters needs to keep Khosgel in their selections as its last win was too  good

Race8:Odalis(6)-Win

Very very tough race

Carlton has class but racing logic says not to fancy horses which run in distance shorter than last win

Beau Ideal will be in strong contention

Tejaswani will look other way if Beau Ideal is on job and same holds true for Beau Ideal if Tejaswani is on job

Odalis in last run was badly interferred,here it is bound to run a very good race and can upset

Silver Crown won very well last run but not sighted in track after that

Proof came like a rocket in last run,very impressive in tracks,should be in thick of action

Ashwashakthi always run good on D Day,cannot be ignored atleast  for Jp

Always Bullish may need more ground

Dusty Lady is no pushover,found right combination of equipments in last race,should be in fighting

Finally

I opt for Odalis due to innermost box which will help it to grab initiative

Jackpot hunters need to keep Carlton.Beau Ideal,Tejaswani.Odalis,Proof.Ashwashakthi and Dusty Lady

Race9:Bold Majesty(2)-Win

This is the way  i think abt this derby race

Colts will have upper hand,fillies can be ignored for win

Baashgar has no class to run in this race,can be ignored even for place

Bold Majesty who won colts stake in great style emerges as main contender,should be the one they all have to beat

Silver Phantom who finished second behind Bold Majesty is surprisingly slow in start even in mockrace,needs very hard riding and can be ignored

Spreadeagle from Bangalore circuit lacks class but still has chance to finish in top 3

Top Commander from Mumbai circuit will be doosra from MAM stable but considering the fact that Bangalore based horses run better on Hyd track than Mumbai based horses,one can ignore it

Veloz will not sustain over this distance,can be ignored for place

Culbera will recieve lot of support due to second behind Be Safe factor,pls note that it was under immense pressure that it managed to finish second in last run to God Speed,i dont think it has that gait to force a win over likes of Bold Majesty

Feliciana is noted in my records as winner when saddled,but it disappointed in last run,lacks class,can place

Supreme Fairy has no class to run here

Jackpot hunters can bank Bold Majesty

Race10:True Friend(8)-Win

Mr Glorious likes to run close to pace,doubt if it can hit front from outermost draw

Pakat pakat Pakat is on verge of a coup,can upset

Symbol Of Honor is seen urged in tracks,can be ignored

Careless Love is not sighted in tracks

True Scholar won on a derby day two years back,looks to have lost form

True Friend who improved a lot after removal of Blks now runs with +ve switch of shoes,will be in 1-2

Desert Bloom is a repair case,y it has been entrusted to Dashrath singh is unexplainable

Regal Groom is showing lot of speed in trials,dont ignore it alteast for Jp






Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Mysore 1st October



Hi guys,

We all are aware of highly inconsistent timings of last few meetings of Mysore.I developed a new system to negate that effect.Presented here is the new ADVANCED version of DR which represents value according to class


Race1

Sl
Name
DR
12
ORDERED STEPS
602
11
FASHION FLAME
590
9
OUR COMMANDER
589
5
STAR OF DESIRE
587
7
ARTHUR
577
8
ENCOURAGER
573
3
SHINING BAY
554
6
VRAJANANDAN
553
10
SOMERSET ROSE
541
4
BATTLE EMPRESS
536
2
REVA
516
1
DANCING LAURIE
516

Analysis:  For this class any horse getting a DR above 600 is a very good sign .Ordered Steps on this No  False rails days will hit front and can manage to stay till end.Fashion Flame is certain place option.Arthur may find distance sharp.Our Commander has failed as fav and does not appeal due to jky factor.Star of Desire is not prepared,Encourager won in well planned coup,may run easy this time keeping the tradition of this stables.
12.Ordered Steps-Win
Tanalaà 12/7.11/7.11.9.3.8
*************************************************
Race2

Sl
Name
DR
5
YOUNG GALLANT
588
1
BLACK DRAGON
587
11
KIR ROYALE
584
9
THE BACK BENCHER -
575
3
CHARM AND DREAM
573
7
AFTERNOON DELIGHT
571
6
GUAPO
569
8
SMART MISTRAL
565
2
CEASARIA
562
4
LAKE EMERALD
560
10
HAUTE ECOLE
558
12
FLYINGHORSE
555

Analysis: Young Gallant has been very consistent ,blessed with speed,can upset,Only worry is jockey.Black Dragon is not sighted in tracks and runs in negative shoes,hence can be ignored.Kir Royale after good forward run in last race gets services of top rider and will be hot market fancy,can win.
11.Kir Royale-Win
Tanalaà 5.11/5.11/3.6.7.9
***************************************************************
Race3

Sl
Name
DR
1
GALWAY GIRL
614
3
SIVANTA
588
6
SECRET STRIKE
579
2
JEYEM’S PRIDE
570
8
ONE TO NOTE
562
7
GOLDEN CRUISE
559
12
WINNING DESIRE
557
5
TOUCH OF ROMANCE
555
10
TAMMY TUNE -
543
9
SWEET TODDY
536
11
ORIENTAL KING
534
4
SUNLINE
523

Analysis:  Class 5 horse getting a DR of 614 Clearly speaks volumes of its class.Though iam of opinion that a maiden horse running in class5 directly from maidens race is not a advisable bet but rest of the horses are so backward in form that one is forced to letgo that notion for one time here.One to Note is place certainity due to class factor
1.Galway Girl—Win
Tanalaà 1/3.6.2/2.3.6.8
***************************************************************
Race4

Sl
Name
DR
11
STRIVE AND SERVE
593
3
TRUST ME BOY
590
1
SHAKA ZULU
583
6
GRAND SUCCESS
576
4
KOHINOOR BLITZ
575
7
ALL FOR CASH
571
8
ABSOLUTE BRAVE
558
2
AL ATTATURK
558
9
DANCE WITH ME
530
10
BREEZO
519

Analysis:   Strive And Serve at this weight has very good chance to upset as it stays close to pace and can force a win in final furlong.Trust Me Boy was a very good winner but best till 1400mts only . ShakaZulu and Alattaturk are suspect over this distance
11.Strive And Serve-Win
Tanalaà 11/1.3/1.3.4.6
*************************************************
Race5

Sl
Name
DR
2
MAHIKI
599
7
ITS MY PARTY
589
4
KOHINOOR GLAMOUR
577
5
FIORITTA
574
3
AMAZON BAY
572
6
BEST MOVE
571
12
ICEPICK WILLIE
549
10
NERON
534
8
SWEET ANGEL
532
1
BETTER THAN EVER
520
11
SUPER SALONI
466
9
SEA RUNNER
433

Analysis:  Mahiki is from Mumbai,has class,looks very fit,can upset.Its My Party is not sighted in tracks and runs in negative shoes,hence can be ignored.Fioritta runs after a long layoff , inadequately prepared and  in negative shoes.Kohinoor Glamour will find distance sharp.Amazon Bay will find distance sharp.Ice Pick Ville which lost blood vessel in last race in Bangalore will run easy here
2.Mahiki-Win
Tanalaà2/3.5/3.5.12.4
***************************************************************
Race6

Sl
Name
DR
1
SHIVALIK STAR
659
7
WHISPERING GALLERY
651
5
INVINCIBLE PRINCE
650
8
TOPSPOT
645
2
ROCK WITH U
640
6
SECRET PUNCH
633
4
CHUL BUL PANDY
630
3
ISHPINGO
622

Analysis: Shivalik Star comes on top in all aspects and has great chance to win.Whispering Gallery is certain Shp/Place
1.Shivalik Star-Win
Tanalaà1/7/2.5.6
***********************************************
Race7

Sl
Name
DR
4
SOFAST
608
1
FRENEMEE
608
6
BEYOND THANKFUL
606
8
VIOLENT STORM
604
12
INDIAN ROYALTY
596
3
DIVINE FRIENDSHIP
591
9
SPEARTOOTH
591
5
COOL APPROACH
588
2
NOBLE AND NICE
588
11
SUMMER SUN
585
10
AUTUMN RUSH
582
7
IMPRESSIVE BOLT
548

Analysis: Close race but So Fast has slight advantage
4.So Fast-Win
Tanalaà 1.4/1.4.6.8/1.4.6.8.12
*********************************************  
Race8

Sl
Name
DR
5
WAR COMMAND
608
2
FINK
603
1
BOOKER JONES
594
6
ZUCCHERO
593
3
SUPER STRONG
587
4
SUPREME DOMINATOR
583

Analysis: Very very interesting race.Fink is retained at same rating after its win,infact running with 3.5 kgs less whereas horses finished behind it are now carrying 2-3 kgs more than their previous runs.War Command has better DR than Fink and will seriously test class of Fink.Last time I commented that if Fink wins then it will win Derby,I still stick to it and opt for Fink
2.Fink-Win
Tanalaà 2/5/1.3.6
**************************************************
Race9

Sl
Name
DR
2
THE ALCHEMIST
566
3
TRIPLE VICTORY
558
12
PROST
557
9
SAMAJDAAR
554
8
ROCKETEER
554
4
ALPINE SHINE
551
5
ROSIE’S DREAM
546
10
STONE WARRIOR
546
1
PEPPR
544
11
BIGSTORM
540
6
SHADES OF SCARLET
540
7
LAKE OF MAGIC
535

Analysis: But for Alchemist rest all are very closely matched.DR of Alchemist is not a ideal one but still on this No False rails day has slight advantage
2.The Alchemist-Win
Tanalaà 2/3.12.9.8/3.12.9.8.4.5.10
Race10

Sl
Name
DR
12
HERCULEAN
598
10
NUALA
595
3
CATCHY CHARGER
590
11
COUNTRY’S NOBILITY
588
9
COFFEE TIME
587
1
MAGIC WAVE
585
8
SNOW ANGEL
569
5
INDIAN
562
4
VIRTUOSO
559
6
LITTLE ATHENA
545
7
ACE PRINCESS
540
2
PAMUSHANA
530

Analysis: Herculean is running in negative change of shoes on promotion,hence ignored.Naula is running in most apt distance and among its group,can upset.Catchy Charger is under temporary trainer.Countrys Nobility is best as per class but ignoring due to Blks factor.Coffee Time is showing massive speed in trials,should be in 1-2
10.Naula-Win
Tanalaà 10.9/10.9/12.3.11.1.8
********************************************************8
Three Best Bets for the day-à  Strive And Serve,Mahiki and Shivalik Star
Jackpot



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