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Mumbai Derby

>> Saturday, January 31, 2015

Hi all,

Following is the analysis of D Day!!!!

Saturday results were quite shocking for all of us but we cannot ignore the fact that almost all races had many worthy contenders.Derby Day card is no different

Will put POST OPENING ODDS final calls by 11.30am
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Race1:
Alshamsheer won a race on Pune Derby,will try its best to repeat the same on Indian Derby day,has been consistent,on this No False rails day can kick on gamely till end
Shining Path has been prepared for this event,should place
Made To Measure’s last two runs can be ignored due to interference and stumbling,earlier runaway winner,may have some issues of staying till end
Vixen almost pulled a major coup in last run at longer odds,has not won in maidens hence lacks class
Centaurus has won in both runs in this distance,warms up late and as such very difficult in this tough set of class3
Satellite will be market fancy for obvious reasons,a horse which started its winning career with a win in class4 cannot be considered to win in class3 immediately however good bloodlines may be

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Race2
Celsius is not sighted in tracks,outermost draw will not allow it to hit front
In The Limelight is tracking very impressively,if apprentice can hold on to its nerves then it has decent chance to upset at longer odds,place seems certain
Ravello is progressing ideally,should be the one they all have to catch
Hidden Asset in its last two runs was ridden under check contrary to its known style of front running,with better saddle assistance and impressive final trackworks one can assume it to show its real potential here
Senorita Evita  may be fancied but in this scurry race will find difficult to make an impact
Spiderman’s last two runs were not true,has class evident by fact that it has beaten Solomon{twice winner},presence of quality sprinters will seriously test its ability to stay with front runners

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Race3:
Warpath quickened well in debut in last 200mts,has been prepared for this distance,has decent chance to win
Geronimo was hanging out badly in debut run,getting beaten to class4 horses in trials
Jeena with this rider looks difficult
Sacred Fire found Admirality{a classic in making} too hot to handle,tracking impressively and should be in strong contention
Sweep Aside after easy debut run has been showing out in trials,can upset
Pearl Secret still needs gate practice signifying the fact that it is restless and needs more sharpening
Mogadishu’s odds drifted northwards alarmingly,runs for first time after gelding
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Race4:
Dhiskyoan is drawn in outermost box,will not be able to hit front as required
Blazing Fire gave good forward run in its last run,got positive switch of rider,will be in contention
Greymist which ran third to Ravello{now  in class2} in debut just looks too good for this set of non performers,lack of trackwork is perplexing
Ghyana is ridden by winnerless rider
In My Life has worked up well,can place
Rock The Turf faces conflict of interest due to Blazing Fire
Rocking belongs to H J Antia who I guess will be mute spectator on this D Day
Superbolt in this shorter trip can place
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Race5:
Usually a horse which looses in handicap class then wins in maidens class has very little chance to win in higher class but Fibonacci Sequence did this feat,upon close scrutiny it was found that it lost to superior horse in handicap class,has weights in favor,prepared well,can place at lucrative odds

Polydences exhibited its class when it won directly in class 2 after clearing maidens,its run in 1000G can be ignored,has decent chance to win

Your Royal Majesty was beaten by Polydences when former was giving just 1.5kgs now it is giving 5 kgs,offcourse it has ran some great races but giving weight to same age contenders,bit too much of asking

Desert Wings has not been able to win in this class,facing too tough set to beat
Set To Fly seems to have lost form,runs in demotion,will be prominent till last 200 mts before packing off

Remember Me gets its fav rider,can sneak in place

Tammy O ,Bombardier,Manakel,Monza,Alecto and Celtic king looses due to distance and class imcompatibility

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Race6:
Double Or Quits has feel of distance,working very impressively stays close to pace and has decent chance inspite of top weight

Midnight Dancer is not sighted in tracks or pool after last run

Dance Debonaire tends to fall back after 10 furlongs no recent trackwork noted

Arglye Pink performs only in class5

Riochett was seen finishing on well in both starts of this season,can upset

Saporelli which was finishing on well over 8-9 furlongs was installed as hot fav in last run over
2000mts,cud not sustain the distance and when urged for response hung out badly

Azdagen runs in this class for first time,just managed to hold on its last run

Bethpage was tired and beaten in race no 77 over 1600mts

Savage Garden runs over apt distance,can surprise
Sir Song surprisingly runs in negative change of shoes
Secret Mission failed in lower class,ignore
Oceana failed as fav in lowest class,ignore
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Race7:
Stateira which is full sister to Zegna was fav in debut where it was seen moving up well in last 100mts,seen getting beaten to class 4 horses
Kyoto which gave good mockrace is seen urged for response in final fast trackwork
Phoenix Fire which is full brother to Nesto was way behind till bend in debut run but started galloping ground devastatingly once alighted for task,should be in contention
Intelligence was ridden hands and heels without much pressure yet was seen devouring ground,can upset here
Columbiana which ran green in debut yet finished second to very good horse is surprisingly made to run with Blks
Redbug has impressed in mockrace and preparation,do not ignore atleast for JP
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Race8THE MCDOWELL SIGNATURE INDIAN DERBY (GRADE 1)
For Indian Horses 4 years old only.

Selections
1.Be Safe
5.Illidian
2.Bold Majesty

Be Safe has beaten Bold Majesty in Bangalore Derby
             Has beaten Congressional Shivalik Storm in 2000G
His Highess has not even cleared class3
Illidian has impressed in its last win,prepared for this event,will try its best
Quasar is stablemate of Be Safe—Will Narredu go against especially when Turf Baron MAM himself has shown keen interest to win Indian Derby
Tiger Tops likes to dictate its own pace,presence of many pace setters will not allow it to settle properly
Rest all for numbers
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Race9:
Earl Grey runs in class 5 immediately from maidens,cannot win as per class terms
Aleta ran along good horses,qualifies as per class terms,seen urged for response in trials which is not a good sign
Blackbean was ridden by whipless rider in last run,will be in contention now
Dia which ran unextended till now can extend its best here
Speedup gets top DR due to notable second in its last run,no trackwork noticed after that run
Izzara is blessed with speed,drawn advantegously in inner box,can make it start to finish affair on this No False Rails day
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Mumbai Derby posting

>> Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Will post for Mumbai Derby sans DR

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Hyderabad Derby 25th Jan

>> Sunday, January 25, 2015

Hi

As a gesture of goodwill for benifit of visitors who still visit this blog iam posting here the analysis of Derby day races


Race1:
Golden Essence was badly interfered in its last run,giving very impressive tracks{Ld horses giving -2 for 800mts on outersand are strong signal},should be in thick of action
Vijay Vidhata broke its winning streak in its last run where it lost under mysterious conditions to interconnected horse,with positive switch of saddle will be in contention       
Rosemonde is speedy,trainer is known to saddle a winner on Derby day,has only two entries for the day,lost blood vessel in first run of the season,subsequent run after that was easy one,will try its level best to lead all the way on this No False rails day,may place     
Flower Roll Up  last run can be ignored due to whiploss and unfavorable distance,earlier impressed a lot by wonderful turn of foot in first run of season,tracking very impressively,should be in 1-2      
Khosgel last 2 runs were in wrong distance,fact that it lost to Dad’s Dollar which struggled to win in its next outing clearly underlines the point that it will not be able to tackle this class2
Sunday beauty is entrusted to its fav rider after two easy runs but it lacks the class to pose any challenge here
Red Express gets huge jockey switch after 4 easy runs this season,likes to run in front,disadvantgously drawn in outerbox which will not aid its front running
Rubyonrails never won in this distance ridden by winnerless rider
Valerian Steel won drawing away in its last run,colors of this stable sparkle on D days,will be tried but has to tackle a very very tough set,handicapper did not penalize me even a class penalty inspite of 7 lengths win showing that it does not have the class
Rani has failed too many times,did not clear class3


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Race2:
Odysseus won on debut clocking class 2 timings,working very impressively,bred well,should be the one they all have to beat
Time to Climb showed clean pair of heels to ordinay set of horses but its manner of victory was stunning,has better DR.Interesting thing to note here is interconnection of owners-Trainer.Vijaj Gupta horse is under Laxman Singh whereas LVR saddles other owners horse,there have been some questionable performances in last few weeks due to this factor,on Pedigree,trainer,Jockey factor I would opt for Odysseus inspite of second in DR
Green Striker not in this set,Love for the game will find distance sharp
Karromshade has been running forward runs in strong company,it was seen struggling in race no 110,gets better rider aftergood impressive preparation but still cannot beat fancied duo
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Race3:                
Kireeti has never over this distance,last win was over weak company
Aston Doulton has struck purple patch,will try for hattrick,weight will be an issue
Globetrotter has lost form,last run was slow in start,cannot be trusted
True Pearl is a maiden,warms up late when all is over,at best place
Dolce runs with positive switch of shoes,seen urged for response in tracks,best for 1000mts
Reflections has been getting preferential handicap reductions,all its run this season were in very strong company,latest spurts indicate its fitness,can upset


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Race4:

Racing Ikon will not sustain over this distance with this weight
Roma Rogue has poor saddle support and negative shoes
Romantic  Fire this season has always ran along very good races,this is relatively lot weaker set,has good chance to win
Parade Queen won by distance in last run,has been consistent,has highest DR due to that factor,will be surprised by Romantic Fire this time
 Vijaysakhi lacks class as it failed to clear maidens


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Race5:

Taviz likes to run In front and that will be the reason for its failure
Red Ramble merits attention due to its notable second to Right Dimension in first run of season,subsequent runs were in wrong distance,tested by Trainer himself ,will be in strong contention
Upon A Star lacks the winning punch,is a maiden,preparation suggests it will be an easy run here
Silver Passion is ridden by winnerless rider under Trainer who had just one win{that too Doosra} in 120 horses it saddled
Ondha Ondha Ondha will attract public fancy due to Jockey,its rider was reprimanded in last run due to inept handling,runs with Blks for first time in handicap race but one thing which puts a big question mark over its chances is the fact that it is continuously giving unimpressive Gate practices without any fast trackwork,falls back after 7 furlongs
Lightning Streak was seen improving well under disinterested rider in its last run over 1400mts,with strong saddle assistance and step up distance it may be fancied,cannot take any call due to unproven record over this distance


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Race6:
Fairy Emperor is not sighted in tracks after last run,stables will not be active on this D Day as it had very good season till now
Machine Gun lost to better horses in last two runs,has decent chance in this set
Gentle Chief won well last time but over weak company
Westminister is long due for a win,at tidy handicap,can upset
Vijays Victory will run easy in this higher class over out of bound distance
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Race7:
Mountak may try start to finish,one cannot ignore the fact that its final fast trackwork was indicative of stables intentions
Lips Locking is ignored due to negative shoes
Fair And Square has been giving very good DR,best for 1000mts,ignoring it due to lack of preparation
In Reality was interfered in its last run,shorter distance and relatively weaker rider forces us to ignore it
Musk Melon will find distance sharp
Proud Image which improved dramatically after addition of Blks is facing very tough set of class2,
Yski Yski yski will target lower class
Aware has been giving some good forward runs this season,in this set of very good sprinters looks
Ein Ein Ein is best suited for 1000-1100mts,will not be able to hit front from outer box,not seen in tracks
Rajkumar was beaten by very ordinay horses,no chance here


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Race8:THE DECCAN BOOKMAKERS GOLCONDA DERBY STAKES
There is only one horse which can pose some threat or challenge to Quasar and that is Right Dimension,rest looks way beyond in comparision


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Race 9

Galiat lost as fav in last run where it was badly interfered,returned lame,I always maintained that Jockey  Beuzelin  Louis knows only one type of riding and that is trying thru rails sides,has lost many races due to getting boxed up,top weight and outer box are added disadvantage
Palm Spring ran unextended along very superior horses this season,may try start to finish but tough job
Aventus surprised everyone by brilliant turn of foot in its last run where it could front due to weak set,here that luxury will not be able,difficult
Movie Mughal will stay close to pace this time due to favorable draw,has to save himself from Desire’s Onslaught
Power Planet is not sighted in tracks after last run,will not extend against this set
Desire has never lost in this distance,has beaten Movie Mughal and Carlton{Vanquisher of Galiat} in its last run,should win again
Super Falcon has very good speed,upset if any can come in this form,negatives are outerdraw
and relatively weaker rider,place looks good


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Race10:
Without going into much detail I would say that Silver Cruise is a good betting option


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Hyd Derby posting

>> Saturday, January 24, 2015

Review of Hyderabad Derby day races will be posted here

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>> Thursday, January 1, 2015


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