Bangalore 09.05

 Tough competitive card with possibilities of upsets. I will be posting inputs based on paddock view and odds movement in our Whatsapp Channel, stay tuned

Race-1: ALAMGIR (2)

STAR OF INDIA is a fully exposed mare carrying top weight. ALAMGIR, drawn favorably and partnered by a claiming jockey, looks a strong contender. PLEDGE is progressing and remains far from fully exposed, recent trials are suggestive and colt looks capable of continuing the Mysore winning form. ASSURANCES impressed while carrying top weight to victory in lower company and retains the same leading jockey, though the extra 100mts in this higher class could test her sprint-oriented pedigree.

Conclusion:  In this 1500mts contest, horses possessing the right blend of speed, stamina, and a strong finishing effort in the last 400 mts hold a clear edge over winners of weaker races. PLEDGE and ALAMGIR fit the profile well and appear the leading contenders for the win, while ASSURANCES faces a tougher assignment in this company.

Post Race: Results 5-6-2

Alamgir (16/10 to 12/10) and Pledge {2.75 to 2.25} dominated the betting market. Assurance set the pace followed by Alamgir and Star of India. Pledge came with a telling strides to go clear from 200mts to win in a great manner. Assurances and Alamgir stayed in second and 3rd place. Flexi slowly away and ran detached

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Race-2: RODNEY (1)

RODNEY impressed while winning a recent mock race and, despite top weight, holds a distinct class edge that makes him a live threat. CIRCLE OF DREAMS has shown explosive track work and returns for the first time after being gelded, though this distance may not ideally suit his running style. SASSY SARAH is a progressive filly with two wins over this trip and will be eager to overcome the class deficiency. KISS OF GREY drops back into handicap company after unsuccessful graded race attempts at Mysore and Hyderabad, but the presence of other pacey runners may deny her the usual front-running advantage. SPLENDID DREAM, a beaten favorite last week, is expected to ensure a strong pace from the outset and could stay on gamely. WAITARA may improve for the outing and could need this run.

Conclusion:  In  this class-3 race over 1300mts Raw class and speed matter much more than improvement. My emphasis is to pick horse with good natural speed to stay within first 4 early, proven 1200-1400 form and has class edge. Rodney fits perfectly in this profile. 

Post Race: Results 1-3-8

 Circle of Dreams was firm fav @60/100 with next in demand Rodney at 7/1. There was spirited betting on 7 place {1.5 to 1.1) 

Rodney on expected lines ran a great forward race, Circle of Dreams tried his best but class ruled strongly in favor of Rodney. Waitara came up late to pip Thelissma on post for 3rd place, one for the notebook

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Race-3: HUSNARA (1)

HUSNARA, after shaping competitively in stronger company, looks poised to reveal her true sprinting ability in this lowest class event. ANNABELLE, a well-bred filly, drops to the basement class off an attractive mark and is aided by an allowance-claiming jockey, though the absence of recent trackwork raises concerns over fitness. RAZZMATAZ, a lightly built filly,lacks early speed and is partnered by a whip-less jockey. JALWA also drops to the lowest class, though her previous efforts have been uninspiring. Among the older handicappers, FEMME FATALE could emerge as the joker in the pack after benefiting from a recent run.

Conclusion:  Tricky class-5 sprint race as low rated are inconsistent, exposed form is unreliable, pace collapses happen often.  As such we have to rely on intent handicapping and pick class droppers. Between  Husnara and Annabelle we have to pick former due to intent. 

Post Race: Results 6-2-4

HUSNARA {2.5 to 3/1} and ANNABELLE {18/10-14/10} were the only ones in betting. Husnara started slowly and was never in hunt at any stage. Annabelle tried to steal the race from the word go but was beaten by Jalwa in the end

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Race-4: RICARDO (1)

RICARDO performs best with fresh legs, has already displayed top-class sprinting ability, and the allowance-claiming jockey helps offset the burden of top weight, making him the one to beat. MANDARINO may prove effective only in an unlikely scenario of a pace collapse. KALAMITSI, under jockey Trevor, can stay in contention with his strong pace-stalking style. EXCELLENT LASS faces a much tougher task against Class 1 opposition after completing a hat-trick of wins. NEVER GIVE IN is an honest performer, though he may lack the finishing kick required against superior company.

Conclusion:  This is a high class sprint race with proven performers. Core principle is to pick a horse that is proven in this class, has tactical speed and drawn well to be with pace. Ricardo is worth taking chance.

Post Race: Results 4-1

Excellent Lass (0.85 to 0.7) and Never Give In (3.5-4/1) and rest above 10/1 presented the betting scenario of this race.  Ricardo grabbed the initiative from the inner draw but was drawn in speed dual with Star Glory. Kalamitsi stalked the pace setters, Kalamitsi and Ricardo engaged in hot contest but in the end Kalamitsi got better of Ricardo to emerge victorious. Both were available at 15/1 and 2.5 for place

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Race-5: SIEGE STORM (5)

ATMAN, the only runner with race experience, possesses strong speed influence in his pedigree and races with blinkers, though the stablemate appears to have secured the stronger jockey booking. BARTOLINO is likely to be better suited to future races over a mile and beyond, making this more of an educational run. CONQUISTADOR has a perfectly balanced dosage profile for 1400mts and has impressed in his final fast work. DUKE OF BUCKINGHAM, on dosage indications, should race prominently early but may find the closing furlong testing. SIEGE STORM owns an ideal balanced dosage profile, has been working well, and could finish explosively in the last 300mts THE ARCHER has caught the eye in both mock race and final fast work, though his dosage profile suggests he may eventually require at least a mile. ASHWA NEW YORK is expected to force the pace alongside ATMAN before weakening late. ROYAL LEGACY, a full sister to PROKOFIEV — winner of a Class 2 event over 1400mts last week — has been working well and looks capable of being in contention.

Conclusion:  This is a well-bred 3yo maiden over a demanding 1400mts where balance between Speed and Stamina becomes more important. Race assessment is done combining dosage profiles, trackwork, Jockey and stable intent. Race is expected to be a true pace race due to presence of 3 speedsters. Siege Storm and The Archer along with Conquistador may be busy at all important end with first one having an slight advantage 

Post Race: Results ?-?-?

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Race-6: FLASH (3)

FINAL CALL, despite meeting her own age group while carrying top weight, may find this sprint trip on the sharper side given her mile-oriented pedigree. EBOSTE, a naturally speedy gelding, should improve considerably with the benefit of a recent run and a valuable 1kg drop in the handicap. FLASH performs well when fresh, has dropped to a competitive mark, and could spring a surprise if breaking cleanly from the inside draw. SUPER KING returns after a 287-day absence without any published trackwork and can be safely ignored if quoted above 4/1, as market strength may reveal stable intent. LG'S STAR could emerge as the gamble horse in this age-group contest.

Conclusion:  This is class-4 sprint races for older horses. We have to rely on exposed form and hidden intent. Clearly a fitter horse that is drawn well and has ability to be with pace should be preferred

Post Race: Results ?-?-?

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DAYS BEST:  SIEGE STORM [5-5]

NEXT BEST: RICARDO [4-1]

Place Accumulator: 1-2/ 2-1/ 5-6/ 6-2