Bangalore 17.05

Saturday’s races, barring the maiden event, were largely dominated by front-runners and pace stalkers. Horses attempting to finish late found it difficult to make ground as the pace remained strong throughout. Even STAR GLORY, generally considered a specialist over 1200mts, managed to sustain the lead all the way over 1400mts

Most pre-race assessments were built around the possibility of a pace collapse, but that scenario never materialized. In fact, the only winning selection that succeeded came from off the pace, underlining how differently races can unfold in reality. The day itself began on a disappointing note when our strongly fancied runner in the opener lost the race at the gates after a slow jump. Assessments regarding ACANTHA and SUPPREME SUCCESS also failed badly.

That, ultimately, is the beauty of this sport — races may appear deeply complex on paper, yet the eventual results can sometimes make them look like the simplest of quizzes.

Sunday races though appear bit better and hopefully should recoup the losses of Saturday

Race-1: WINDCLEAVER (1)

WINDCLEAVER, a decently bred runner, stayed on well to finish third on opening day and now takes on older horses from an unchanged mark. The addition of a first-time trackwork session is a positive indicator. DAYS DATE is a speedy one that reappears without any preparation. MEGA SUCCESS has dropped to a competitive handicap mark but lacks natural speed and is further inconvenienced by the widest draw. SLING SHOT has slipped close to the last winning mark and comes here with an ideal preparation pattern — a blowout followed by a stretching push under an apprentice, signaling sharpness. Combined with favorable class, distance, and positive equipment changes, the gelding shapes as a potent upset candidate. DOUBLE SCOTCH enjoys some relief in the handicap but remains an overall weak performer. N R I GOLD has a weak form line and fails to appeal on any significant count. EMBOSOM raced one-paced while holding third throughout in a very weak field last time and may struggle to reproduce even that effort here. EMERALDO has dropped well below the last winning mark ,struggles on the Bangalore summer track.

Conclusion: With most runners carrying regular entries in veterinary reports, preference in this race should lean towards fitter, speedier horses with recent form and favorable draws. On those parameters, WINDCLEAVER stands out by comfortably passing the key filters and emerges as the natural choice 

Result: 6-10-5

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Race-2: KNOTTY CRUISE (3)

UNFORGETTABLE STAR ,a modest bred gelding may be out for a lung opening exercise, Jockey has won only one race for this stable in 32 pairings. KNOTTY CRUISE ran strongly against superior horses in both starts of career, drawn for customary pace stalking run. DREAM WALKIN' has impressed in preparation pattern, can raise a winning gallop in debut. TIGER BAY finished a close 4th in Debut, top Jockey is booked, controlled trackwork devoid of flashy works confirms his long distance staying leaning, may be effective over 8-10 furlongs later. 

Conclusion: This appears a moderate Class IV handicap where current fitness and upside carry greater importance than bare form-lines. Preference should therefore be given to progressive, race-fit horses with encouraging recent runs. On overall balance, KNOTTY CRUISE appeals most, though DREAM WALKIN' cannot be taken lightly if the paddock appearance and race-time market trends prove favorable.

Result: 3-10-5

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Race-3: REGAL REALITY (4)

STELLANTIS tends to perform in direct proportion to market expectations — the shorter the odds, the stronger the likelihood of a forward showing. On the November 1 line, the horse holds an edge over REGAL REALITY. REGAL REALITY has disappointed as a fancied runner in the last four starts but appears to have returned to peak condition and, in this relatively weaker company, could well resume winning ways. ROYAL DECCAN performed creditably in modest company but now raised in class following an easy outing a fortnight ago.MONTERIO showed improvement during the Mysore main season last year but still appears some way short of the cutting edge required in this contest.

Conclusion: In this Class 2 sprint, primary emphasis should be placed on proven speed figures, recent preparation, and the balance between weight and class. While STELLANTIS tops the field on raw speed figures, REGAL REALITY gains the edge on the latter two factors and is preferred overall.

Result: 4-1

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Race-4: IRON IMAGE (1)

IRON MIRAGE possesses an ideal 1200–1400mts dosage profile with strong speed influence and arguably brings the strongest preparation pattern into this contest. WHISTLING GLORY may hold the best-balanced pedigree profile for this 1400-metre trip, though the absence of recent preparatory gallops hints at a possible lack of stable intent. DEEP RESPECT defied her staying-oriented pedigree by showing sharp speed throughout on debut, but reproducing that sprinting effort over this route distance could prove difficult. The filly is likely to be more effective over 1600–2000mts in future. MONSTERA appears well prepared for this feature event following an eye-catching third over 1200mts on debut, though others appeal stronger on pedigree parameters. MOONVEIL owns an ideally balanced profile for 1400mts and has impressed in fast work, with some racing pundits even considering the gallop a winning one. However, the post-victory equipment change is viewed as a strong negative from a study perspective.

Conclusion: Feature event of the day  shapes as a tactically intriguing 1400mts contest between sharp speed-oriented runners and more balanced stamina-backed profiles. IRON MIRAGE rates as the top selection on overall assessment, though the colt can only be considered a worthwhile betting proposition if the odds adequately compensate for the risks posed by proven winners and potential hidden upsetters in the field.

Result: 1-5

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Race-5: CANTARINA (4)

LEGACY FIELD is ideally a 1200mts horse, can be vulnerable in final furlong. THEOS a stamina based colt makes a debut with soft preparation giving an indication that is an experience gaining run. CANTARINA is a speed-miler balance type colt implying it has quick acceleration and stamina ideal for this type of race, peak fitness is evident by impressive spurts in trials. EXOTIC BLACK, stamina laced filly has been given useful trials over longer distances in morning workouts, she may take time to mature. MYSTIC DEW has strong stamina influence. STARZELLA finished a good second in Winter over 1200mts, recent trials by same jockey are suggestive but can be effective only in unlikely case of a pace collapse

Conclusion: This is a competitive 3yrms event over 1400mts. Horses with most suitable pedigree for this tough distance and peak fitness should be preferred. Cantarina gets ticks in all boxes. 

Result: 8-1-4

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Race-6: ELYSUIM (6)

FORSETI, a summer specialist is discarded by Imtiaz Khan stable and ridden by a Delhi based Jockey. SILICON STAR was withdrawn last time, struggles in First Up Runs. N RI VICTORY is more or less a morning  glory, cannot be fancied confidently. ELYSUIM, an excellent bred should be first fancy based on her good second in 1000G. HAZEL, a speedy filly has tough task over extended trip of higher class. ETERNAL GLORY is a decent bred sprinter plagued with issues of slow starts.

Conclusion: This looks a competitive Class-3 handicap where current fitness and race sharpness appear more important than pure class. The race shape suggests a genuinely-run 1400mts contest with multiple forward-going types likely to ensure proper pace.

Result: 6-8-2

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DAYS BEST: CANTARINA [5-4]

Bangalore 16.05

 Appears to be a fav card

POST RACE UPDATES will be posted in Whatsapp Channel

Race-1: DR ASH (1)

DR ASH achieved the first summer placing of the career when finishing a distant second behind a superior rival last time out. The quick reappearance under a stronger jockey booking suggests intent, and the gelding will be keen to overcome a poor overall record in this class, C&D, and in the trainer-jockey combination. ELEVEN was heavily fancied under a top jockey over this class and distance previously but failed to deliver. Fully exposed in this class, the horse appears to have little scope for further improvement. ACANTHA, aided by a leading jockey and impressive recent trials, is likely to attract support. However, the former Vijay Singh reject has yet to produce anything noteworthy since shifting from Chennai. STAR COMET returns after a lengthy 434-day absence, making old form difficult to rely upon. ART OF ROMANCE attempts this distance for the first time, and race-time market trends could prove significant given the scheming nature of the connection

Conclusion: In this lower-grade Class 4 for older fully exposed horses, recent poor form and exposed profiles are best overlooked in favor of well-handicapped runners that are neither out-and-out sprinters nor plodding stayers. Jockeyship alone may not prove decisive in such races, and on overall balance DR ASH fits the ideal profile best.

Result: 3-7-4

****Dr Ash slowly away by 3 lengths and always in rear

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Race-2: ROYAL JEWEL (1)

ROYAL JEWEL appeared to respond positively to blinkers last time but was victim of a questionable ride that led to the jockey’s suspension. A positive jockey switch and the move to a more suitable extended trip are notable advantages, the stable is known for improving horses significantly in their second run of the campaign. MAGNA CARTA is a well-bred filly whose conditioning trackwork suggests strong stable intent. SUPPREME SUCCESS, despite being well bred, continues to disappoint and faces a difficult assignment even with an equipment change and top jockey booking. VAFADAR, a naturally bred miler and former leading stable discard, has impressed in fast work and could prove dangerous in this lowest class if fully recovered from recent medical setbacks. HONEY POT showed useful sprinting ability when finishing second over this class and distance last season,despite the benefit of race fitness the wide draw poses a challenge . LEGENDARY IMPACT has repeatedly failed to justify market support even in favorable race conditions.

Conclusion: In this class-5 race over 1400mts class droppers and horses which finished within 3-4 lengths in recent runs hold advantage over fully exposed and under performing horses. Royal Jewel gets the first nod however a paddock look and market check is recommended on Magna  Carta 

Result: 4-1-5

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Race-3: EXCEED (2)

BAASHA has attained competitive mark and in this target class will try to make every post a winning one from a favorable draw. EXCEED a well-bred heavy weight horse justified fav tag in last run thus enabling first win of Jockey for the stable, recent trials are suggestive and should run a good race. AMAZING STRIDES performs well in Summer, recent impressive conditioning trial work suggest he has overcome the setback suffered in last run, however not better than Exceed on 31st July Line. FEELING GOOD related to St Ledger winner lacks natural speed and will struggle in hands of a whip-less Jockey. 

Conclusion: This is much stronger and cleaner handicap with several horses possessing ability with genuine reliable current form. Pace will be honest due to presence of sprinters thus strongest late-sustaining horses will be more effective. Exceed gets tick in all boxes.

Result: 1-2-4

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Race-4 RICARDO (1)

RICARDO was caught close home last time out and makes a quick reappearance in an attempt to capitalize on that strong effort. The gelding tops the Timeform ratings and sets the standard here. GLOBAL INFLUENCE invariably dazzles in track work but has repeatedly failed to reproduce the same form on race day. After winning a few races early in the career at Kolkata, the horse has yet to score since shifting to Southern India. Moreover, the gelding tends to produce peak performances in the second run after a break and may therefore struggle to make a strong impact in this outing. STAR GLORY shaped encouragingly in the seasonal debut, but with eight of nine career wins coming over 1200mts the horse appears best suited to shorter trips and is overlooked here. DON CARLOS, in the second run of the season, takes on a tougher higher-class assignment and will also carry a half-kilo overweight.

Conclusion: This is the highest-quality race on the card, where horses unable to travel strongly at a sustained pace are likely to be exposed quickly. The ideal winner profile demands class edge, current sharpness, and tactical speed — and on all counts, RICARDO emerges the standout choice.

Result: 4-2

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 Race-5: SHINING WAYS (3)

BUREVESTNIK failed as a hot favorite last time, reportedly after losing shoes during the race. Trainers generally follow such reversals with either a maintenance gallop or a sharp 600-metre blowout, but the absence of recent fast work along with a jockey downgrade suggests stable confidence may no longer be absolute. SHINING WAYS possesses the right blend of speed and stamina for this 1200-metre trip, booking of top Jockey who tested it multiple times in trials is a positive signal.FLAVIANUS is more of a sprint-miler type whose conditioning work has been eye-catching, but the chances appear heavily dependent on an unlikely pace collapse. QUANNAH, the stablemate of BUREVESTNIK, is expected to finish strongly. However, a history of respiratory and guttural issues directly impacting oxygen efficiency, and just a single track workout after such setbacks slightly dents confidence. REGAL BEAUTY appears naturally speedy and precocious, making the filly capable of making an immediate impact on debut. SHRISTI, a modestly bred runner, is likely to require a few outings before reaching peak effectiveness.

Conclusion: This is an intriguing maiden contest. Two runners from leading stables are likely to command strong market support despite carrying notable negatives, making their chances more hope-based than evidence-driven. On overall profile, SHINING WAYS or REGAL BEAUTY could emerge successful on debut.

Result: 3-7-1

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Race-6: DARINGTON (1)

DARRINGTON confirmed mile breeding last time out, makes handicap debut over shorter trip, looks ideally prepared and despite conceding 6kgs to same age contestant cannot be ruled out due to class edge.  LIGHTNING BLITZ showed some forward form in maidens races, light preparation and second string Jockey does not present good optics of stable intent in this first run after a gelding operation. SOLARA, a 6f specialist makes handicap debut at an ideal mark, tends to get weakened. FIERY LOVE belongs to stable which extend their horses in second up run so can be ignored unless it is backed heavily. KHAZANA a well-bred is showing out in trials, dangerous at this mark.

Conclusion: This race is class vs sprint dynamics. Darington has proven class, controlled gallops in morning gallops shows stable is expecting a pace collapse of younger horses which can aid this gelding's late finishing. 

Result: 3-8-1

****DARRINGTON’s trainer had apparently obtained permission for the horse to race without the use of the whip. This crucial information, not available in the public domain beforehand, altered the race dynamics significantly against the colt in a sprint where a strong finishing effort was expected.

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STANDOUT SELECTION:  [4-1] RICARDO

Bangalore 10.05

 

Mixed card with a possibility of 1 or 2 upsets. 

Race-1: DOUBLE SCOTCH (7)

AGAPE has scope for improvement with Ts on but top weight of 61kgs and weak finish are negatives. PALMA showed no significant improvement with Blinkers in last run, dangerous if fancied in this lowest class otherwise can be ignored. ENJOYABLE has run advantage, capable of sprinting all the way from barrier to post. FRIYA in my record book is marked as "Note when runs without Blinkers" , has good speed and without blinkers this time can upset.  MAKOTO foal of a decent miler drops to lowest class, belongs to scheming connections that can eye a gamble in this weak set, race time odds will present clear picture. DOUBLE SCOTCH has been running consistent in last few runs and on that count merits prime attention   

Conclusion:  This class-5 race over 1500mts is usually full of  inconsistent horses, unreliable form, hidden intent from connections ern hence emphasis would be on recent progressive form, handicap advantage and distance aptitude. At this stage picking Double scotch due to recent form but hidden intent has to be carefully reviewed. 

Post Race: Results 6-1-8

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Race-2: AGRADOR (2)

REFINED AGGRESSION, impressive winning debut profile, maintains fitness level, positive intent is shown in first run after gelding but series of recent medical issues should be accounted for. AGRADOR scored hat-trick in failing as fav, can redeem in this relatively weaker grade. CHINKY PINKY is drawn well for a customary pace stalking position, age limits her chances. HOLD YOUR BREATH makes handicap debut at attractive mark but insipid preparation and weak connections temper enthusiasm. MY SOLITAIRE has some form but all in lowest class. PURSUIT OF WEALTH despite slow starts finished close in last few runs, a clean jump can cause an upset over this favorable distance. 

Conclusion:  This lower grade of class-4 over 1400mts should be assessed on class transition, handicap placement and tactical speed + stamina. Winner should emerge between Agrador and Refined Aggression.

Post Race: Results 1-3-2

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Race-3: BASILICA (12)

TRUE PUNCH (TR-79) won twice during the Mysore main season but faces a difficult task from a poor wide draw. SILICON STAR (TR-82) returns from a setback pleasing second in a mock race, though the lack of early speed combined with the widest draw makes the assignment tough. SENOR CHERIE (TR-69) suffered setbacks twice in the last three runs, but recent work suggests the horse is back to peak fitness. FELISA (TR-83) owns the best speed figures in the field, has drawn favorably, and should be prominently involved. MASTER WAY (TR-66) is consistent, though the current jockey booking may prove a disadvantage in securing a good position amid the expected strong pace. BASILICA (TR-93) had a valid excuse in the last outing and now appears attractively placed in the handicap. 

Conclusion:  In this Class 3 sprint, preference goes to horses that have consistently sustained their speed against stronger Class 3 opposition over 1200mts. On that count, the winner is likely to emerge from between BASILICA and FELISA

Post Race: Results 4-1-5 

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Race-4: MAANA(2)

THE LEADER was not in his usual elements in last summer season which ended with a setback, recent trials are suggestive of its peak level fitness, top weight may trouble in last 100mts. MAANA is a progressive type filly and has strong chance in this set. SUNSHINE ran a good 3rd in 1000G, looks well prepared and should run a bold race. AQUASTIC has speed influence and may struggle over this distance. CORINTHAN drops significantly in class but lacks killer acceleration against strong finishers. 

Conclusion:  In this tricky class-3 race over 1500mts preference should be given to horses progressing in handicap and proven between 1400-1600mts. 

Post Race: Results 4-3-2

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Race-5: EFFICACY (4)

PROMISE OF THE FUTURE runs well with fresh legs, has won a mock race last week and despite top handicap stays competitive. EFFICACY is a good mixture of speed and stamina and looks in pink conditions. JERSEY KING is at ideal handicap, booking of top Jockey emits positive intent to regain winning ways though there is a good possibility he may find one better. VICTORIA DORESAANI finishes on without any killer instinct. LUX ATERNA is drawn well for her lead/pace stalking tactics. 

Conclusion:  Most of the horses are well exposed and closely matched, winner usually is not the best handicapped but the one who gets best run at the race pace. Efficacy may steal the race before Promise of the future, Lux Aterna and Jersey King could sense the danger.

Post Race: Results 4-7-2

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Race-6: VALIANT STREAM (5)

UNFORGETTABLE STAR generally struggles in first-up appearances, and the booking of a second-string jockey suggests this could be more of a lung-opener run. EL REY, though enjoying favorable setups on several occasions, has repeatedly failed to deliver and does not inspire confidence. VALIANT STREAM emerges with a highly compelling profile. The colt was a repeat-pattern winner when comfortably beating JADE MOUNTAIN, who won last week, while AGRADOR has been installed favorite in second race of today's card. From the same race, AUCTUVA nearly won on opening day, JALWA scored on Saturday, and FIL DE FRANCE won last Sunday. Adding further strength to the case is a mighty impressive fast work under the same jockey, indicating peak fitness levels. GLORIOUS STRIDES does not appeal strongly on current preparation trends. PRINCE OF WALES appears well placed on all counts and, in all probability, could follow the winner home.

Conclusion:  This race appears likely to be dominated by progressive types rather than exposed performers. On that basis, VALIANT STREAM appeals as the strongest winning proposition.

Post Race: Results 9-7-5

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DAYS BEST:  VALIANT STREAM [6-5]

NEXT BEST: AGRADOR [2-2]

Bangalore 09.05

 Tough competitive card with possibilities of upsets. I will be posting inputs based on paddock view and odds movement in our Whatsapp Channel, stay tuned

Race-1: ALAMGIR (2)

STAR OF INDIA is a fully exposed mare carrying top weight. ALAMGIR, drawn favorably and partnered by a claiming jockey, looks a strong contender. PLEDGE is progressing and remains far from fully exposed, recent trials are suggestive and colt looks capable of continuing the Mysore winning form. ASSURANCES impressed while carrying top weight to victory in lower company and retains the same leading jockey, though the extra 100mts in this higher class could test her sprint-oriented pedigree.

Conclusion:  In this 1500mts contest, horses possessing the right blend of speed, stamina, and a strong finishing effort in the last 400 mts hold a clear edge over winners of weaker races. PLEDGE and ALAMGIR fit the profile well and appear the leading contenders for the win, while ASSURANCES faces a tougher assignment in this company.

Post Race: Results 5-6-2

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Race-2: RODNEY (1)

RODNEY impressed while winning a recent mock race and, despite top weight, holds a distinct class edge that makes him a live threat. CIRCLE OF DREAMS has shown explosive track work and returns for the first time after being gelded, though this distance may not ideally suit his running style. SASSY SARAH is a progressive filly with two wins over this trip and will be eager to overcome the class deficiency. KISS OF GREY drops back into handicap company after unsuccessful graded race attempts at Mysore and Hyderabad, but the presence of other pacey runners may deny her the usual front-running advantage. SPLENDID DREAM, a beaten favorite last week, is expected to ensure a strong pace from the outset and could stay on gamely. WAITARA may improve for the outing and could need this run.

Conclusion:  In  this class-3 race over 1300mts Raw class and speed matter much more than improvement. My emphasis is to pick horse with good natural speed to stay within first 4 early, proven 1200-1400 form and has class edge. Rodney fits perfectly in this profile. 

Post Race: Results 1-3-8

 

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Race-3: HUSNARA (1)

HUSNARA, after shaping competitively in stronger company, looks poised to reveal her true sprinting ability in this lowest class event. ANNABELLE, a well-bred filly, drops to the basement class off an attractive mark and is aided by an allowance-claiming jockey, though the absence of recent trackwork raises concerns over fitness. RAZZMATAZ, a lightly built filly,lacks early speed and is partnered by a whip-less jockey. JALWA also drops to the lowest class, though her previous efforts have been uninspiring. Among the older handicappers, FEMME FATALE could emerge as the joker in the pack after benefiting from a recent run.

Conclusion:  Tricky class-5 sprint race as low rated are inconsistent, exposed form is unreliable, pace collapses happen often.  As such we have to rely on intent handicapping and pick class droppers. Between  Husnara and Annabelle we have to pick former due to intent. 

Post Race: Results 6-2-4

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Race-4: RICARDO (1)

RICARDO performs best with fresh legs, has already displayed top-class sprinting ability, and the allowance-claiming jockey helps offset the burden of top weight, making him the one to beat. MANDARINO may prove effective only in an unlikely scenario of a pace collapse. KALAMITSI, under jockey Trevor, can stay in contention with his strong pace-stalking style. EXCELLENT LASS faces a much tougher task against Class 1 opposition after completing a hat-trick of wins. NEVER GIVE IN is an honest performer, though he may lack the finishing kick required against superior company.

Conclusion:  This is a high class sprint race with proven performers. Core principle is to pick a horse that is proven in this class, has tactical speed and drawn well to be with pace. Ricardo is worth taking chance.

Post Race: Results 4-1

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Race-5: SIEGE STORM (5)

ATMAN, the only runner with race experience, possesses strong speed influence in his pedigree and races with blinkers, though the stablemate appears to have secured the stronger jockey booking. BARTOLINO is likely to be better suited to future races over a mile and beyond, making this more of an educational run. CONQUISTADOR has a perfectly balanced dosage profile for 1400mts and has impressed in his final fast work. DUKE OF BUCKINGHAM, on dosage indications, should race prominently early but may find the closing furlong testing. SIEGE STORM owns an ideal balanced dosage profile, has been working well, and could finish explosively in the last 300mts THE ARCHER has caught the eye in both mock race and final fast work, though his dosage profile suggests he may eventually require at least a mile. ASHWA NEW YORK is expected to force the pace alongside ATMAN before weakening late. ROYAL LEGACY, a full sister to PROKOFIEV — winner of a Class 2 event over 1400mts last week — has been working well and looks capable of being in contention.

Conclusion:  This is a well-bred 3yo maiden over a demanding 1400mts where balance between Speed and Stamina becomes more important. Race assessment is done combining dosage profiles, trackwork, Jockey and stable intent. Race is expected to be a true pace race due to presence of 3 speedsters. Siege Storm and The Archer along with Conquistador may be busy at all important end with first one having an slight advantage 

Post Race: Results 5-7-6

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Race-6: FLASH (3)

FINAL CALL, despite meeting her own age group while carrying top weight, may find this sprint trip on the sharper side given her mile-oriented pedigree. EBOSTE, a naturally speedy gelding, should improve considerably with the benefit of a recent run and a valuable 1kg drop in the handicap. FLASH performs well when fresh, has dropped to a competitive mark, and could spring a surprise if breaking cleanly from the inside draw. SUPER KING returns after a 287-day absence without any published trackwork and can be safely ignored if quoted above 4/1, as market strength may reveal stable intent. LG'S STAR could emerge as the gamble horse in this age-group contest.

Conclusion:  This is class-4 sprint races for older horses. We have to rely on exposed form and hidden intent. Clearly a fitter horse that is drawn well and has ability to be with pace should be preferred

Post Race: Results 1-3-8

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DAYS BEST:  SIEGE STORM [5-5]

NEXT BEST: RICARDO [4-1]

Bangalore 03.05

 

Race-1: BLUE STORM (1)

This is a lowest possible grade race over an extended sprint. Preference should be for Class droppers, horses with recent fitness and form, and neither pure sprinters nor late grinders. We have already established that class-5 horses lack closing finish hence would avoid horses with no speed drawn in outer draws. 

BLUE STORM, a compulsive slow starter seems to have improved gate manners as evident by recent trials, she can be a real threat, filly top weight negative factor gets negated by an allowance claiming Jockey. VERSACE, a reject case is sprinter by breeding, runs well with fresh legs and from a favorable inner draw should be in strong contention. SHOCK AND AWE failed to hold over this Class and Distance in last two runs, Time form rating earned for that efforts are poor. TIGER BAY is foal of flop dam, well-prepared but ridden by a second string Jockey

Post Race Notes: Result:1-6-3 

Race-2: NIGHT RAIDER (2)

A lower grade of a class-4 sprint race. Horses with decent Speed numbers, drawn well, fitter and class droppers should be preferred in that order for this kind of races.

MUTUAL TRUST has excellent speed numbers but no recent trackwork noted. NIGHT RAIDER performed well last summer in better companies, looks sharp in trials and qualifies as top pick. MNEMOSYNE is a pure sprinter, fitted with Head Basket Bit suggesting horse has a tendency to grab Bit during race, drawn wide and will be engaged in speed dual with other horses initially blowing up all energy. ALLEGRA DANCE an ordinary bred makes handicap debut at an ideal mark, looks sharp in recent trials, Dexter Rubber Bit may allow filly to settle well unlike it previous runs where it was tossing head, will be extended fully.

Post Race Notes: Result: 4-1-2

 

Race-3: FILS DE FRANCE (1)

This is an interesting class-5 race over 1400mts with few exposed, few debutants and few improvers. Top 7 in the card are carrying 61kgs and above, for this kind of races simple rule is to oppose fillies carrying 61kgs against colts with same weight. Pace stalkers/Mid settlers will have the upper hand.

FILS DE FRANCE 's debut run form got boosted by AUCTAV on Friday which almost toppled the hotly fancied jodi, colt looks in great shape and under the top weight specialist Jockey has decent chance. BIG SAUCE and ICE QUEEN, average bred late debutant fillies makes handicap debut in a class-5, former was withdrawn last time, well-prepared and may extend well. KAZING has been prepared systematically in an ideal manner, fitted with Blinkers but filly carrying 61kgs is a strong negative factor

Post Race Notes: Result: 1-6-7

Race-4: SPLENDID DREAM (2)

This is a competitive class-4 sprint race. Apart from usual filters like wide draw and older horses we need to dig further in speed numbers, current mark vs last win mark and relative handicapping.

SAPPORO was winner of this C&D in penultimate run {TR-79}, 2kgs worse now. SPLENDID DREAM won over this distance in Mysore Main season, impressed in mock race and appears to be at par weights vis a vis last winning mark. ILIA was winner of lower grade in last run {TR-41}, earned a poor number and an encore looks highly unlikely. JADE MOUNTAIN makes handicap debut in hands of a Top Jockey, trials are suggestive, TR earned in last run is below par and need to show lot of improvement. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 6-2-1

Race-5: REIKO(2)

This is a quality class-2 handicap race over 1400mts, Top weights need class edge and horses weighted below 55kgs lacks class hence most ideal handicapped weight range would be 56-58kgs. In this type of races there are no blind improvers so horse must be within 2-3 lengths over 1200=1400mts in last couple of runs, in short consistency is the core. Apart from that for 1400mts usual filters like pure sprinters or late grinders, no speed horses drawn in wide draws should be ignored. 

PROKOFIEV is days best of multiple media selections, impressive trackwork and her runs in Pune and Bangalore Summer Derby are the reasons but we have established that horses below 55kgs need to show lot of improvement to be competitive.  DON CARLOS has top weight to carry. REIKO is on roll, has best Time form Rating. INSPIRE has decent form-line, should place. POWER OF BEAUTY is at an explosive mark and can upset all calculations. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 8-2-3

Race-6: OSAKA (9)

This is a maiden race with all first timers. We will keep it simple, trackwork {Trotting to fast work, mockraces} Trainer intent {evident by Jockey declaration} and barriers will be given preference, We are avoiding pedigree leanings for the reasons mentioned in earlier post

BULLET PROOF has won a mock race, ridden by a top Jockey and drawn favorably. KNIGHTSBRIDGE, stablemate of Bullet Proof has benefit of mock race, decent Jockey declared but drawn wide. BREATHTAKING showing lot of speed in trials, above average Jockey, drawn well. ESTELLE has benefit of mock race and a fast work, decent Jockey, drawn widest. MONSTERRA ordinary mock race but impressive fast works, stable's preferred Jockey for gambles, drawn good. OSAKA mighty impressive fast works, top Jockey who won 3 races for this trainer in 5 pairings, drawn good. PEARL STAR working well in trials, Jockey on upward form, drawn wide

Post Race Notes: Result: 1-9-8

Race-7: MONEY BAGS (2)

This is a class-3 sprint race with improvers from class-4, consistent class-3 performers and few class droppers. Apart from usual filters of wide draw and inconsistent speed rating numbers we have to ignore horses rated above 60 and below 52. MONEY BAGS will carry public purse for obvious reasons, nothing particularly negative against him. DEFENSE COUNSEL has weaker saddle support and drawn wide, most probably a lung opening exercise. POLE STAR is highly consistent, has won a race from outerdraw but that was a No-Whip race, he is not a genuine front runner and may struggle. FLIGHT FANTASY is back on fav Summer track but she will surely need a run. SEE THE LIGHT a well bred filly will not relish the hot pace of this 6f race. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 2-6-5

 

DAYS BEST: MONEY BAGS [7-2]

NEXT BEST: NIGHT RAIDER [2-

How did DEEP RESPECT win

 Opening day of the Bangalore Summer season saw an upset in form of DEEP RESPECT {R5-7} ridden in front all the way by the ace jockey Suraj Narredu

Why was it quoted at liberal odds of 10/1? 

Answer lies in her pedigree which screams staying capabilities and most of us assumed it won't be effective in a Sprint race against a proven sprinter who was installed as hottest fav of the day

So, what did we miss??  

Apparently some younger horses use muscle energy in the initial phase of career hence are able to sprint despite their pedigree traits. As they mature pedigree traits start appearing as lung power becomes more dominant instead of muscle powers.  This explains why Indian Derby winners are able to win a sprint race in initial stage of career. 

We will see that gradually DEEP RESPECT will struggle to repeat the sprint type of runs in future runs. But such horses are progressive types and should be treated with respect