Bangalore 10.05

 

Mixed card with a possibility of 1 or 2 upsets. Merit odds will be updated in WhatsApp channel

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Race-1: DOUBLE SCOTCH (7)

AGAPE has scope for improvement with Ts on but top weight of 61kgs and weak finish are negatives. PALMA showed no significant improvement with Blinkers in last run, dangerous if fancied in this lowest class otherwise can be ignored. ENJOYABLE has run advantage, capable of sprinting all the way from barrier to post. FRIYA in my record book is marked as "Note when runs without Blinkers" , has good speed and without blinkers this time can upset.  MAKOTO foal of a decent miler drops to lowest class, belongs to scheming connections that can eye a gamble in this weak set, race time odds will present clear picture. DOUBLE SCOTCH has been running consistent in last few runs and on that count merits prime attention   

Conclusion:  This class-5 race over 1500mts is usually full of  inconsistent horses, unreliable form, hidden intent from connections and large improvement/regression pattern hence emphasis would be on recent progressive form, handicap advantage and distance aptitude. At this stage picking Double scotch due to recent form but hidden intent has to be carefully reviewed. 

Post Race: Results 6-1-8

Agatha was backed well from 13/10 to 90/100 but there was big gamble on Mokovo (3.75 to 12/10) which made every post a winning one to land a successful gamble. Dr Cholestar finished 3rd at lucrative odds denying Double Scotch a place berth 

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Race-2: AGRADOR (2)

REFINED AGGRESSION, impressive winning debut profile, maintains fitness level, positive intent is shown in first run after gelding but series of recent medical issues should be accounted for. AGRADOR scored hat-trick in failing as fav, can redeem in this relatively weaker grade. CHINKY PINKY is drawn well for a customary pace stalking position, age limits her chances. HOLD YOUR BREATH makes handicap debut at attractive mark but insipid preparation and weak connections temper enthusiasm. MY SOLITAIRE has some form but all in lowest class. PURSUIT OF WEALTH despite slow starts finished close in last few runs, a clean jump can cause an upset over this favorable distance. 

Conclusion:  This lower grade of class-4 over 1400mts should be assessed on class transition, handicap placement and tactical speed + stamina. Winner should emerge between Agrador and Refined Aggression.

Post Race: Results 1-3-2

Refined Aggression (45/100-50/100) and Agrador (3.75 to 3.25) and others above 10/1 was the betting scenario. 

Fav sat in pace stalking position whereas Agrador was in back bench. Refined Aggression won quite easily, Dr Ash finished second (backed well in place from 3/1 to 1.4) whereas Agrador could only finish a timid third, appears to be an ordinary one and should not be fancied in future

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Race-3: BASILICA (12)

TRUE PUNCH (TR-79) won twice during the Mysore main season but faces a difficult task from a poor wide draw. SILICON STAR (TR-82) returns from a setback pleasing second in a mock race, though the lack of early speed combined with the widest draw makes the assignment tough. SENOR CHERIE (TR-69) suffered setbacks twice in the last three runs, but recent work suggests the horse is back to peak fitness. FELISA (TR-83) owns the best speed figures in the field, has drawn favorably, and should be prominently involved. MASTER WAY (TR-66) is consistent, though the current jockey booking may prove a disadvantage in securing a good position amid the expected strong pace. BASILICA (TR-93) had a valid excuse in the last outing and now appears attractively placed in the handicap. 

Conclusion:  In this Class 3 sprint, preference goes to horses that have consistently sustained their speed against stronger Class 3 opposition over 1200mts. On that count, the winner is likely to emerge from between BASILICA and FELISA

Post Race: Results 4-1-5 

Open race with 4, 5 and 12 quoted between 3-3.5

La Mcqueen set a scorching pace but was eventually overtaken by Senor Cherie which won well sparing 2 lengths to True Punch and fast finishing Felisa. Basilica fell back from a prominent position in last furlong. Kavali dropped the rider soon after the start

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Race-4: MAANA(2)

THE LEADER was not in his usual elements in last summer season which ended with a setback, recent trials are suggestive of its peak level fitness, top weight may trouble in last 100mts. MAANA is a progressive type filly and has strong chance in this set. SUNSHINE ran a good 3rd in 1000G, looks well prepared and should run a bold race. AQUASTIC has speed influence and may struggle over this distance. CORINTHAN drops significantly in class but lacks killer acceleration against strong finishers. 

Conclusion:  In this tricky class-3 race over 1500mts preference should be given to horses progressing in handicap and proven between 1400-1600mts. 

Post Race: Results 4-3-2

Sunshine was backed as if win was a formality which is the never the case in this type of races

Aquastic made every post a winning one, Sunshine struggled and finished second ahead of Maana which looked like was asking for more ground

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Race-5: EFFICACY (4)

PROMISE OF THE FUTURE runs well with fresh legs, has won a mock race last week and despite top handicap stays competitive. EFFICACY is a good mixture of speed and stamina and looks in pink conditions. JERSEY KING is at ideal handicap, booking of top Jockey emits positive intent to regain winning ways though there is a good possibility he may find one better. VICTORIA DORESAANI finishes on without any killer instinct. LUX ATERNA is drawn well for her lead/pace stalking tactics. 

Conclusion:  Most of the horses are well exposed and closely matched, winner usually is not the best handicapped but the one who gets best run at the race pace. Efficacy may steal the race before Promise of the future, Lux Aterna and Jersey King could sense the danger.

Post Race: Results 4-7-2

Promise of the future (2.5 to 2.4) and Efficacy (1.5-1.25), Lux Aterna (7/1) presented the betting scenario of this race. As expected Efficacy led all the way to win quite easily from fast finishing Lux Aterna, Promise of the future stayed in for 3rd place. Jersey King stalked pace till bend, folded up fast in the straight

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Race-6: VALIANT STREAM (5)

UNFORGETTABLE STAR generally struggles in first-up appearances, and the booking of a second-string jockey suggests this could be more of a lung-opener run. EL REY, though enjoying favorable setups on several occasions, has repeatedly failed to deliver and does not inspire confidence. VALIANT STREAM emerges with a highly compelling profile. The colt was a repeat-pattern winner when comfortably beating JADE MOUNTAIN, who won last week, while AGRADOR has been installed favorite in second race of today's card. From the same race, AUCTUVA nearly won on opening day, JALWA scored on Saturday, and FIL DE FRANCE won last Sunday. Adding further strength to the case is a mighty impressive fast work under the same jockey, indicating peak fitness levels. GLORIOUS STRIDES does not appeal strongly on current preparation trends. PRINCE OF WALES appears well placed on all counts and, in all probability, could follow the winner home.

Conclusion:  This race appears likely to be dominated by progressive types rather than exposed performers. On that basis, VALIANT STREAM appeals as the strongest winning proposition.

Post Race: Results 9-7-5

Valiant Stream (65/100) was hot fav, was leading strongly but all off a sudden stopped in last 100mts. Prince of Wales and Glorious strides who were close on honches of fav overtook and fought on strongly ,eventually Prince of Wales got better . El Ray ran one paced 4th

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DAYS BEST:  VALIANT STREAM [6-5]

NEXT BEST: AGRADOR [2-2]

Place Accumulator: 1-4/ 3-5/ 6-9

Bangalore 09.05

 Tough competitive card with possibilities of upsets. I will be posting inputs based on paddock view and odds movement in our Whatsapp Channel, stay tuned

Race-1: ALAMGIR (2)

STAR OF INDIA is a fully exposed mare carrying top weight. ALAMGIR, drawn favorably and partnered by a claiming jockey, looks a strong contender. PLEDGE is progressing and remains far from fully exposed, recent trials are suggestive and colt looks capable of continuing the Mysore winning form. ASSURANCES impressed while carrying top weight to victory in lower company and retains the same leading jockey, though the extra 100mts in this higher class could test her sprint-oriented pedigree.

Conclusion:  In this 1500mts contest, horses possessing the right blend of speed, stamina, and a strong finishing effort in the last 400 mts hold a clear edge over winners of weaker races. PLEDGE and ALAMGIR fit the profile well and appear the leading contenders for the win, while ASSURANCES faces a tougher assignment in this company.

Post Race: Results 5-6-2

Alamgir (16/10 to 12/10) and Pledge {2.75 to 2.25} dominated the betting market. Assurance set the pace followed by Alamgir and Star of India. Pledge came with a telling strides to go clear from 200mts to win in a great manner. Assurances and Alamgir stayed in second and 3rd place. Flexi slowly away and ran detached

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Race-2: RODNEY (1)

RODNEY impressed while winning a recent mock race and, despite top weight, holds a distinct class edge that makes him a live threat. CIRCLE OF DREAMS has shown explosive track work and returns for the first time after being gelded, though this distance may not ideally suit his running style. SASSY SARAH is a progressive filly with two wins over this trip and will be eager to overcome the class deficiency. KISS OF GREY drops back into handicap company after unsuccessful graded race attempts at Mysore and Hyderabad, but the presence of other pacey runners may deny her the usual front-running advantage. SPLENDID DREAM, a beaten favorite last week, is expected to ensure a strong pace from the outset and could stay on gamely. WAITARA may improve for the outing and could need this run.

Conclusion:  In  this class-3 race over 1300mts Raw class and speed matter much more than improvement. My emphasis is to pick horse with good natural speed to stay within first 4 early, proven 1200-1400 form and has class edge. Rodney fits perfectly in this profile. 

Post Race: Results 1-3-8

 Circle of Dreams was firm fav @60/100 with next in demand Rodney at 7/1. There was spirited betting on 7 place {1.5 to 1.1) 

Rodney on expected lines ran a great forward race, Circle of Dreams tried his best but class ruled strongly in favor of Rodney. Waitara came up late to pip Thelissma on post for 3rd place, one for the notebook

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Race-3: HUSNARA (1)

HUSNARA, after shaping competitively in stronger company, looks poised to reveal her true sprinting ability in this lowest class event. ANNABELLE, a well-bred filly, drops to the basement class off an attractive mark and is aided by an allowance-claiming jockey, though the absence of recent trackwork raises concerns over fitness. RAZZMATAZ, a lightly built filly,lacks early speed and is partnered by a whip-less jockey. JALWA also drops to the lowest class, though her previous efforts have been uninspiring. Among the older handicappers, FEMME FATALE could emerge as the joker in the pack after benefiting from a recent run.

Conclusion:  Tricky class-5 sprint race as low rated are inconsistent, exposed form is unreliable, pace collapses happen often.  As such we have to rely on intent handicapping and pick class droppers. Between  Husnara and Annabelle we have to pick former due to intent. 

Post Race: Results 6-2-4

HUSNARA {2.5 to 3/1} and ANNABELLE {18/10-14/10} were the only ones in betting. Husnara started slowly and was never in hunt at any stage. Annabelle tried to steal the race from the word go but was beaten by Jalwa in the end

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Race-4: RICARDO (1)

RICARDO performs best with fresh legs, has already displayed top-class sprinting ability, and the allowance-claiming jockey helps offset the burden of top weight, making him the one to beat. MANDARINO may prove effective only in an unlikely scenario of a pace collapse. KALAMITSI, under jockey Trevor, can stay in contention with his strong pace-stalking style. EXCELLENT LASS faces a much tougher task against Class 1 opposition after completing a hat-trick of wins. NEVER GIVE IN is an honest performer, though he may lack the finishing kick required against superior company.

Conclusion:  This is a high class sprint race with proven performers. Core principle is to pick a horse that is proven in this class, has tactical speed and drawn well to be with pace. Ricardo is worth taking chance.

Post Race: Results 4-1

Excellent Lass (0.85 to 0.7) and Never Give In (3.5-4/1) and rest above 10/1 presented the betting scenario of this race.  Ricardo grabbed the initiative from the inner draw but was drawn in speed dual with Star Glory. Kalamitsi stalked the pace setters, Kalamitsi and Ricardo engaged in hot contest but in the end Kalamitsi got better of Ricardo to emerge victorious. Both were available at 15/1 and 2.5 for place

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Race-5: SIEGE STORM (5)

ATMAN, the only runner with race experience, possesses strong speed influence in his pedigree and races with blinkers, though the stablemate appears to have secured the stronger jockey booking. BARTOLINO is likely to be better suited to future races over a mile and beyond, making this more of an educational run. CONQUISTADOR has a perfectly balanced dosage profile for 1400mts and has impressed in his final fast work. DUKE OF BUCKINGHAM, on dosage indications, should race prominently early but may find the closing furlong testing. SIEGE STORM owns an ideal balanced dosage profile, has been working well, and could finish explosively in the last 300mts THE ARCHER has caught the eye in both mock race and final fast work, though his dosage profile suggests he may eventually require at least a mile. ASHWA NEW YORK is expected to force the pace alongside ATMAN before weakening late. ROYAL LEGACY, a full sister to PROKOFIEV — winner of a Class 2 event over 1400mts last week — has been working well and looks capable of being in contention.

Conclusion:  This is a well-bred 3yo maiden over a demanding 1400mts where balance between Speed and Stamina becomes more important. Race assessment is done combining dosage profiles, trackwork, Jockey and stable intent. Race is expected to be a true pace race due to presence of 3 speedsters. Siege Storm and The Archer along with Conquistador may be busy at all important end with first one having an slight advantage 

Post Race: Results 5-7-6

Siege Storm (1.5-Even) and The Archer (1.5 to 1.7) dominated betting

As expected Atman set the pace, Siege Storm from the pace stalking position burst into front in final 300mts and won very impressively. The Archer warmed up late cofirming her mile pedigree leaning. 

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Race-6: FLASH (3)

FINAL CALL, despite meeting her own age group while carrying top weight, may find this sprint trip on the sharper side given her mile-oriented pedigree. EBOSTE, a naturally speedy gelding, should improve considerably with the benefit of a recent run and a valuable 1kg drop in the handicap. FLASH performs well when fresh, has dropped to a competitive mark, and could spring a surprise if breaking cleanly from the inside draw. SUPER KING returns after a 287-day absence without any published trackwork and can be safely ignored if quoted above 4/1, as market strength may reveal stable intent. LG'S STAR could emerge as the gamble horse in this age-group contest.

Conclusion:  This is class-4 sprint races for older horses. We have to rely on exposed form and hidden intent. Clearly a fitter horse that is drawn well and has ability to be with pace should be preferred

Post Race: Results 1-3-8

Final call was hot fav @40/100. our selection Flash (30 and 5/1) led all the way till being beaten by shortest possible verdict

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DAYS BEST:  SIEGE STORM [5-5]

NEXT BEST: RICARDO [4-1]

Place Accumulator: 1-2/ 2-1/ 5-6/ 6-2

Bangalore 03.05

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Race-1: BLUE STORM (1)

This is a lowest possible grade race over an extended sprint. Preference should be for Class droppers, horses with recent fitness and form, and neither pure sprinters nor late grinders. We have already established that class-5 horses lack closing finish hence would avoid horses with no speed drawn in outer draws. 

BLUE STORM, a compulsive slow starter seems to have improved gate manners as evident by recent trials, she can be a real threat, filly top weight negative factor gets negated by an allowance claiming Jockey. VERSACE, a reject case is sprinter by breeding, runs well with fresh legs and from a favorable inner draw should be in strong contention. SHOCK AND AWE failed to hold over this Class and Distance in last two runs, Time form rating earned for that efforts are poor. TIGER BAY is foal of flop dam, well-prepared but ridden by a second string Jockey

Post Race Notes: Result:1-6-3 

Blue storm(60/100) justified the hot fav tag by an uncontested start to finish lead. Versace went for customary front/Pace stalking run, place was backed from 16/10 to 80/100,ended up 3rd keeping our Place Accumulator alive. Shock And Awe who did not find any support for place also was eventually withdrawn

Race-2: NIGHT RAIDER (2)

A lower grade of a class-4 sprint race. Horses with decent Speed numbers, drawn well, fitter and class droppers should be preferred in that order for this kind of races.

MUTUAL TRUST has excellent speed numbers but no recent trackwork noted. NIGHT RAIDER performed well last summer in better companies, looks sharp in trials and qualifies as top pick. MNEMOSYNE is a pure sprinter, fitted with Head Basket Bit suggesting horse has a tendency to grab Bit during race, drawn wide and will be engaged in speed dual with other horses initially blowing up all energy. ALLEGRA DANCE an ordinary bred makes handicap debut at an ideal mark, looks sharp in recent trials, Dexter Rubber Bit may allow filly to settle well unlike it previous runs where it was tossing head, will be extended fully.

Post Race Notes: Result: 4-1-2

Mnemosyne (2/1) settled well in second position due to hot pace set by 8, extended well to win. Mutual Trust(2/1) tried hard but clearly lacked race fitness, could only finish second. Our selection Night Raider(5/1) struggle to stay with pace, warmed up late and started finishing fast in the last 100mts but the bird had already flown by that time,  should do well in next outing. Allerga Dance was withdrawn before race. 

Race-3: FILS DE FRANCE (1)

This is an interesting class-5 race over 1400mts with few exposed, few debutants and few improvers. Top 7 in the card are carrying 61kgs and above, for this kind of races simple rule is to oppose fillies carrying 61kgs against colts with same weight. Pace stalkers/Mid settlers will have the upper hand.

FILS DE FRANCE 's debut run form got boosted by AUCTAV on Friday which almost toppled the hotly fancied jodi, colt looks in great shape and under the top weight specialist Jockey has decent chance. BIG SAUCE and ICE QUEEN, average bred late debutant fillies makes handicap debut in a class-5, former was withdrawn last time, well-prepared and may extend well. KAZING has been prepared systematically in an ideal manner, fitted with Blinkers but filly carrying 61kgs is a strong negative factor

Post Race Notes: Result: 1-6-7

Fils De France(11/10) justified fav tag by making every post a winning one. Supreme Success was abreast fav till bend but could not make any impact, Steffen improved from 3rd position at bend to end up as runner up. Supreme Success got tired and finished 3rd.  Others just ran

Race-4: SPLENDID DREAM (2)

This is a competitive class-4 sprint race. Apart from usual filters like wide draw and older horses we need to dig further in speed numbers, current mark vs last win mark and relative handicapping.

SAPPORO was winner of this C&D in penultimate run {TR-79}, 2kgs worse now. SPLENDID DREAM won over this distance in Mysore Main season, impressed in mock race and appears to be at par weights vis a vis last winning mark. ILIA was winner of lower grade in last run {TR-41}, earned a poor number and an encore looks highly unlikely. JADE MOUNTAIN makes handicap debut in hands of a Top Jockey, trials are suggestive, TR earned in last run is below par and need to show lot of improvement. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 6-2-1

Sapporo (4,25 to 5.75), Splendid Dreams (18/10 Constant) and Jade Mountain (2.75 to 2.5) were in betting thru out. There was some movement on 3 place. Splendid Dreams tried start to finish but was beaten by Jade Mountain in the end. Sapporo was last initially, improved gradually but could only a tame 3rd

Race-5: REIKO(2)

This is a quality class-2 handicap race over 1400mts, Top weights need class edge and horses weighted below 55kgs lacks class hence most ideal handicapped weight range would be 56-58kgs. In this type of races there are no blind improvers so horse must be within 2-3 lengths over 1200=1400mts in last couple of runs, in short consistency is the core. Apart from that for 1400mts usual filters like pure sprinters or late grinders, no speed horses drawn in wide draws should be ignored. 

PROKOFIEV is days best of multiple media selections, impressive trackwork and her runs in Pune and Bangalore Summer Derby are the reasons but we have established that horses below 55kgs need to show lot of improvement to be competitive.  DON CARLOS has top weight to carry. REIKO is on roll, has best Time form Rating. INSPIRE has decent form-line, should place. POWER OF BEAUTY is at an explosive mark and can upset all calculations. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 8-2-3

Prokofiev (58/100) and Reiko (4/1) were the one to dictate terms till the end, in a hard fought battle Prokofiev got the better of Reiko and won. Cross water finished 3rd ahead of Inspire

Race-6: OSAKA (9)

This is a maiden race with all first timers. We will keep it simple, trackwork {Trotting to fast work, mockraces} Trainer intent {evident by Jockey declaration} and barriers will be given preference, We are avoiding pedigree leanings for the reasons mentioned in earlier post

BULLET PROOF has won a mock race, ridden by a top Jockey and drawn favorably. KNIGHTSBRIDGE, stablemate of Bullet Proof has benefit of mock race, decent Jockey declared but drawn wide. BREATHTAKING showing lot of speed in trials, above average Jockey, drawn well. ESTELLE has benefit of mock race and a fast work, decent Jockey, drawn widest. MONSTERRA ordinary mock race but impressive fast works, stable's preferred Jockey for gambles, drawn good. OSAKA mighty impressive fast works, top Jockey who won 3 races for this trainer in 5 pairings, drawn good. PEARL STAR working well in trials, Jockey on upward form, drawn wide

Post Race Notes: Result: 1-9-8

Bullet Proof (11/10), was backed to the exclusion of others as the next fav was Pearl Star (6/1). Osaka received late support (9/1 to 7/1). 

Bullet Proof soon took the lead in initial 100mts, went strong in the last 200mts to win very handsomely. Osaka tried late but could only finish runner up. Monstera ended up 3rd

Race-7: MONEY BAGS (2)

This is a class-3 sprint race with improvers from class-4, consistent class-3 performers and few class droppers. Apart from usual filters of wide draw and inconsistent speed rating numbers we have to ignore horses rated above 60 and below 52. MONEY BAGS will carry public purse for obvious reasons, nothing particularly negative against him. DEFENSE COUNSEL has weaker saddle support and drawn wide, most probably a lung opening exercise. POLE STAR is highly consistent, has won a race from outerdraw but that was a No-Whip race, he is not a genuine front runner and may struggle. FLIGHT FANTASY is back on fav Summer track but she will surely need a run. SEE THE LIGHT a well bred filly will not relish the hot pace of this 6f race. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 2-6-5

Money Bags (55/100) was backed to the exclusion of others, obliged in a great fashion. Pole star rallied late to  finish second ahead of See The Light who led on the expected lines and ran out gas to lose 3rd position to Defense counsel

 

DAYS BEST: MONEY BAGS [7-2]

NEXT BEST: NIGHT RAIDER [2-2]

PLACE ACCUMULATOR: 1-3/5-4/6-6

How did DEEP RESPECT win

 Opening day of the Bangalore Summer season saw an upset in form of DEEP RESPECT {R5-7} ridden in front all the way by the ace jockey Suraj Narredu

Why was it quoted at liberal odds of 10/1? 

Answer lies in her pedigree which screams staying capabilities and most of us assumed it won't be effective in a Sprint race against a proven sprinter who was installed as hottest fav of the day

So, what did we miss??  

Apparently some younger horses use muscle energy in the initial phase of career hence are able to sprint despite their pedigree traits. As they mature pedigree traits start appearing as lung power becomes more dominant instead of muscle powers.  This explains why Indian Derby winners are able to win a sprint race in initial stage of career. 

We will see that gradually DEEP RESPECT will struggle to repeat the sprint type of runs in future runs. But such horses are progressive types and should be treated with respect

Bangalore 01.05

 

No response is also a response!!

BTC and professionals have adopted a cautious approach evident by low class races and small cards. 

Race-1: ZAYYARA (2)

This is a lowest possible grade race. Class-5 horses lack closing finish and old form also does not hold good hence preference should be for Horses dropping in class or having good recent Speed and Time form ratings or fitter horses. For sprint races in Bangalore outer drawn horses have little chance hence ignoring them. TYAARA, an average bred filly has to carry top weight. ZAYYARA finished a close 3rd in debut, best suited for 1200mts. MYSTICAL QUEEN has best speed numbers but drawn wide. EMBOSOM though long in tooth has credentials to finish in place. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 2-8-10 

ayyara(80/100) as expected stalked the pace behind front runner Mystical Queen, drifted but in the end won well. Embosom, our choice for place was quietly backed from 4/1 to 2/1, stayed in the 3rd position till end. Tayarra went negative in odds and was never in hunt any stage of the race

Race-2: STALINGRAD (5)

This is a 1300mts race which is neither a pure sprint nor a Route trip. Preference should be given to well-weighted leaders/stalkers with good speed numbers, inner drawn horses will have a better chance. IMPERADOR is a well-bred class-3 prospect gelding but reappears without any preparation. ADORNMENT had an excellent chance in this sprint but drawn wide, if unable to sit in a pace stalking position her chances get diminished fast. VIBRANT QUEEN tried a sprint tactics at Mysore but failed, has limited burst of speed. STALINGRAD looks to be in great shape as evident by pleasing trials and should be strongly involved. QUEENDOM has won a mock race recently, makes handicap debut at decent mark, since both runs of career were poor treating this run as a WATCH run.

Post Race Notes: Result: 6-8-3

Open odds race, 6.Frederika surprisingly  and 8.Queendom were joint favs @3/1. Stalingrad and Vibrant Queen remained friend less in market at 7/1. Adornment @9/1 was led to the gates without Jockey {a strong negative trait making horse complacent} 

As gates opened on expectedly lines 3 and 8 led followed by 1. Pace collapsed in last 300mts and Fedrika , a debutant zoomed past front runners and won very easily. Queendom and Vibrant queen stayed in second and 3rd position. Our selection Stalingrad  went negative in odds from 3.5 to 8/1 and was always in rear 

Race-3: ZEPHYRINE(2)

Class 5 sprint race. Preference should be for fitter horses with sprinting or pace stalking abilities drawn in inner draws. Class Droppers having decent Speed and Time form ratings should be the top pick. WINDCLEAVER, a decent bred is never shown in morning trials, Whip-less Jockey and lack of initial speed dents his chances further. ZEPHYRINE with couple of runs under her belt is the most matured among her co-age contestants, she has the ability to be with pace. AGRIMA is clearly a 1400mts horse, has won a mock race on 18th April but not active in trials thereafter, horse lacks initial speed, Jockey Trevor has tough task to place this horse with pace from the wide draw.

Post Race Notes: Result:2-6-1

2.Zephyrine at 90/100 and 3.Agrima @ 2.75 were first two favs and others at longer odds. No appreciable change noted in win and place odds till end. Hno 3 bolted while loading and ran full course and was withdrawn, also 10 was scratched.

As the gates opened fav sat in second position behind Infinity spirit., Zephyrine extended well to win easlly, Royal Jewel stayed on well from inside to finish 2nd pipping Windcleaver .Ladyness was slow in start

Race-4: THRILL OF BRAZIL (1)

This is a class-4 race over 1400mts {Extended Sprint}. Compulsive front runners or plodders, horses with no speed drawn in wider draws, horses with inconsistent Speed/Time Form rating can be ignored. THRILL OF BRAZIL repeats in same C&D working very well, despite wide draw can easily stay with pace and should be able to handle a lenient penalty. EL ALAMEIN performs well in Summer, attained competitive mark, place looks good. GANDOLFINI is a lethargic type. SHE RULES lost at gates in last run, recent trackwork pattern reveals she still remains slow start suspect. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 3-1-10

Thrill of Brazil opened at 1.75, Bellavita(3) who changed stables second time in a short career was joint fav @2/1,eased off to 2.75 by the end. She Rules was available between 7-8..

11&4 led early followed by 1.Pace collapsed and 1 shot ahead but 3 came with telling strides to beat 1 and won easily. She Rules like mentioned in the pre race analysis was again slowly away by 5 lengths but in the end came up flying to finish 3rd.

Race-5: BUREVESTNICK(1)

This is a sprint race for 3yrs old maiden horses, only 3 in the field of 9 horses have race experience. We need to focus on horses with speed oriented pedigree and trials. Trainers intent also matters in this type of races. BUREVESTNICK showed the ability to sprint in debut run, eye catching recent trials and top Jockey booking make this colt the top pick. LEGACY FIELD has impressed in gates and fast works, ideally needs 1200mts but can end up close to the winner. COUNTRY'S MCQUEEN has stamina leaning pedigree. DEEP RESPECT, the only ride of the top Jockey has strong stamina influence. PORTIEUX does not appeal on the preparation model. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 7-2-1

1 was strongly fancied and others above 8/1

Deep Respect ridden by Suraj denied fav the lead and stayed in front all the way causing an upset. legacy Field came flying in the end to finish a good second 

Race-6: EAGLE EYES (2)

This is a Class-3 1400mts race. We need to focus on horses weighted between 55-58kgs that have finished consistently in Top-3 of  this class. Pure Sprinters, Plodders, horses with no speed drawn in outer draws should be ignored. EAGLE EYES earned an excellent Time form Rating for impressive win in last run, outer draw may not be an issue as colt can stay close to pace, top pick.  TOLKEIN was fancied for a place spot in Malakpet Derby, well-prepared and should be in contention. WINFIELD performs well in Summer, placed first time over this C&D. MOON STAR won well at start of last Summer season but has been struggling since then.

Post Race Notes: Result: 3-5-2 

Eagle Eyes attracted maximum betting followed by Tolkein

Tolkein made every post a winning one while Eagle Eyes went all out but could not overtake front running Tolkein and D Frox

Race-7: HAZEL(2)

If Stalingrad {R2-5} wins then by Division theory all horses except for bottom 2 horses qualify. ZILFEE from Mysore is an average bred, top weight will have its toll. HAZEL, a speedy filly will shoot like a rocket from innermost draw, will be hard to catch. ROCKING STAR, winner of last start has appeared in a mock race but not given any fast work thereafter. LARISSA is blazing tracks, failed fav in last run over mile and this drop in distance suits but need to be up with pace. 

Post Race Notes: Result: 2-8-7 

Hazel and Larissa were joint favs @14/10 approx

As expected Hazel led all the way, Larissa tried hard but could not. Auctac came threateningly from inside to almost land a huge upset 

DAYS BEST: EAGLE EYES [6-2]

NEXT BEST: THRILL OF BRAZIL [4-1]

PLACE ACCUMULATOR: 4-2/5-2/6-3

Has the bird flown away ??

I started Deccan Selections back in 2008

At the time, it was simply an attempt to share my race selections—primarily for Hyderabad races—with fellow punters who were looking for genuine insights rather than random tips. What began as a small effort quickly gained momentum.

And what a journey it was.

The strike rate of my selections in the early years was exceptionally good. Word spread quickly among racing enthusiasts, and soon Deccan Selections became a widely followed blog in racing circles. Page views regularly crossed impressive numbers, and on some race days, traffic would shoot past 20,000 views in a single day.

For someone doing this purely out of passion, that kind of response was deeply satisfying.

Encouraged by the success, I expanded beyond Hyderabad and began covering other racing centers as well. The results remained encouraging, and over time I developed a far more structured approach to handicapping.

This eventually led me to create something I was extremely proud of — a Worksheet, a comprehensive data sheet that covered nearly every important handicapping factor:

• Speed Ratings
• Timeform Ratings
• Merit Ratings
• Comparative performance metrics
• Other critical race indicators used by serious handicappers

At that point, I made a decision that many content creators eventually consider—I moved from free content to a paid subscription model.

Initially, the response was decent. Quite a few subscribers signed up because they recognized the amount of effort and expertise involved in producing quality race analysis.

But slowly, things changed.

Subscribers began declining.

Interest faded.

Eventually, it reached a point where continuing the subscription model no longer made practical sense, and I had to stop offering it altogether.

For a long time, I believed one major reason was that very few people truly understood the depth of work involved in creating meaningful ratings. Deriving accurate figures required years of study, race-watching, record keeping, and practical experience.

It was a niche skill.

Then came AI.

And everything changed even faster.

Today, with a simple prompt, people can generate ratings that once required years of domain knowledge. Speed figures, performance comparisons, and analytical summaries can now be created in seconds.

What’s even more fascinating—and perhaps unsettling—is that AI is increasingly capable of handicapping races at a level that can rival, and sometimes even outperform, seasoned handicappers who spent 20–30 years mastering their craft.

That raises an important question.

Where does that leave traditional handicappers?

Does experience still matter?

Do punters still value the intuition, race-reading ability, and nuanced judgment that comes from decades of watching horses, trainers, jockey patterns, track conditions, and understanding things that numbers alone may miss?

Or has the game permanently changed?

Have punters moved on from relying on experienced analysts because AI can now provide endless data instantly?

I’m genuinely curious to know what today’s punters think.

Would you still be interested in the old-school style of race analysis done by experienced handicappers?

Do you still value curated selections and human insight?

Or has that chapter closed forever?

Has the bird already flown away?

I’d love to hear honest opinions from fellow punters and racing enthusiasts.
There’s also a personal reason behind why I’m asking this question now.
Over the past few years, I’ve been dealing with a chronic illness that has gradually limited both my energy and the amount of time I can devote to serious handicapping work. Realistically speaking, I may not have an unlimited window ahead before I become completely ineffective in doing the kind of detailed work I once loved.

And perhaps that realization changes how one looks at things.

At this stage of life, money is no longer the driving factor.

What matters more is spending whatever productive time I have left doing something that once gave me immense joy—studying races, analyzing form, creating ratings, and sharing that work with fellow punters who genuinely value it.

Horse racing handicapping has been more than just a hobby for me—it has been a passion, an obsession, and in many ways, a defining part of my life.

Before I fade into complete irrelevance, I would like to give it one final meaningful attempt—not  as a business venture, but as a return to something I truly loved doing.

The only question is:

Are there still punters who value that kind of old-school, experience-driven work?

Or has the world moved on completely?

I would genuinely appreciate your honest thoughts. 

Future course of action would depend on the response to this post Vinodvyass76@gmail.com

3 months Racing freeze for Thoroughbreds--Effects {Source: A I }

1. Physical Fitness

• Cardiovascular fitness drops fairly quickly. In racehorses:

  • Aerobic capacity decreases noticeably within 2–4 weeks.

  • Muscle mass starts to atrophy after ~4–6 weeks without intense exercise.

• A 3-month break can lead to:

  • Loss of speed, stamina, and agility.

  • Need for reconditioning before racing again.

• Reconditioning a horse safely after 3 months can take 6–8 weeks.

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2. Musculoskeletal Health

• Joints, tendons, and ligaments adapt to regular high-intensity stress:

  • Sudden return to racing after 3 months can increase the risk of injury, especially soft tissue injuries.

  • Bones may lose some mechanical strength if not exercised under load.

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3. Mental State & Behavior

• Thoroughbreds thrive on routine:

  • A long break can lead to boredom or behavioral issues, such as cribbing or stall vices.

  • Some horses become harder to handle at the start of training again.

• Horses also “forget” racing cues, meaning they may need time to regain race-day focus.

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4. Weight and Metabolism

• Horses may gain weight if not exercised properly, or conversely, lose condition if feed isn’t adjusted.

• After 3 months off, trainers often need to carefully balance diet and exercise to restore optimal racing weight.

---

5. Performance Impact

• Studies and trainer experience show:

  • Horses returning after 3 months off may initially run slower or tire faster.

  • Some come back at peak level, but only after gradual training and a couple of preparatory races.

• For top-tier racing, a 3-month interruption is significant and could affect earnings, form, and rankings.

---

6. Financial Implications

• Missed prize money.

• Training costs continue, even if the horse is not racing.

• Potential devaluation if the horse’s form suffers after a long layoff.

---

Bottom Line

• A 3-month racing freeze is manageable, but horses need careful fitness and mental conditioning to return safely.

• The first few races back are usually considered “tune-up” races rather than peak performance races.