Mumbai 06.02

Bad card for small punters. I have taken anti fav stand solely coz of odds and not because of negative factors, and not very confident whether selected horses will oblige. Tread cautiously and take call as per market trends.

A million Dollar question  Will Miracle become the first unbeaten filly to win Indian Derby or will she meet her Waterloo like Set Alight and Southern Empire.  

If Miracle wins today it would be a great posthumously Honour for her Dam Khalifa who unfortunately demised shortly after giving birth to her last Foal- MIRACLE 

(Tidbits from Article of Major Srinivas Nargolkar)

My Two Cents 

Predominantly Bangalore Derby Winners have upper hand in Indian Derby and on that count Zuccarelli would have been my first choice but since Stablemate Miracle is on verge of creating a history would ignore it. My limited knowledge about Pedigrees recieved jolt twice with win of Speedster and Zuccarelli who I thought were best till 10f only. 

Race-1: 3.Spring Grove
1 Columbian: On money failure last time, sharp distance will be an issue
2 Pokerface: 4 times winner over this C&D, latest form is not an encouraging factor
3 Spring Grove: Excuse in the last run, distance suits and best on the 28^th Dec line
4 Sky Fall: Last run was first run after the break, has speed and can trouble the best
5 Dilbar: Goes up in class and facing tough opponents.
6 Red Carnation: Will carry overweight and looks outclassed.
7 Impermanence: Last run was poor, now Blks on and will carry overweight.
 
Conclusion: Columbian no doubt is good but I will take my chances on Spring Grove
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Race-2: 2. Super Natural
1 Last Wish: Eye catching winner in debut, working well and has leading claims.
2 Supernatural: Impressive run away winner in debut, respected for TR it earned
3 Dear Lady: Winner of terms race in debut, ignore last run due to no trackwork, has issues of hanging
4 O Hansini: Shocked rail birds in a Million race in debut, modest bred and needs to prove class
5 Shabell : Beat Star Glory and Ravishing Show which won in their next outing, why change equipment Sir!!!
6 Mufaza: Well bred but debut against winners
 
Conclusion: Cracker of a race!!. Supernatural needs to be respected for TR it earned in debut and hence first preference
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Race-3: 5. Sadler’s Legacy
1 Fortunate Son: Decent bred who is showing out in trials but why Blinkers!!!
2 Hooves Of Thunder: Full brother to an average PLATINI, has a tough task cut out here
3 Kings Best: Debut run was poor, aged Dam
4 O Kanhaiya: Half brother won a mile race at Mysore, Trainer is taking big steps forward
5 Sadler's Legacy:  Bought Abroad, Sire has produced a miler and Dam in her 2 runs career won a 1800mts race, should run good
6 Chat: Dam was a sprinter, debut run was ordinary
 
Conclusion: Sadler’s Legacy may pull it off in debut.
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Race-4: 6.Victorious Sermon
1 Cosmic Ray: Peak form, nothing against except for a slightly higher handicap
2 Taimur: Better than Cosmic Ray on 19th Dec line, cannot fancy with this Jockey
3 Flying Visit: Winner of this cup in 2020 and runner up in 2021(Better placed than Cosmic Ray on that line), Jky won a race for this trainer yesterday
4 Grand Accord: Last run was bad, Not placed well against Sultan Suleiman
5 Sultan Suleiman: Wins in First up run then struggles, absence of more than 45 days will have its toll
6 Victorious Sermon: lost as a fav in this Cup Race last year, last run earned better TR than winner
7 Petronia: Progressive type, not better than  Cosmic Ray and Taimur on 19th Dec line
8 Giant Star: Started career with a win in Terms race over mile, rousing recent form.
Conclusion: Needless to say a highly competitive race which can go anyway, Iam putting my faith on Victorious Sermon for win and Flying Visit for place
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Race-5: 3.Forest Flame
1 Juliette: Winner of this cup last year, last run was dubious but why this Jockey!!!
2 Alluring Silver: Invitation Cup winner, warms up a wee bit late and will have to gather all that she has when race reaches climax.
3 Forest Flame: Defied long lay-off factor to win where it appeared bit rusty initially but responded well in final stages of race.
4 Caprisca: Suspect to stay this trip.
5 Truly Epic: Recent runs have been disappointing and will have to improve a lot to be in contention in this strong company.
6 Successor: Struggles in terms race and is yet to win a mile race.
Conclusion: Top 3 in card are capable of extending each other, My pick here will be Forest Flame
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Race-6: 4.Balenciaga
1 Dexa: Sire' offsprings  except for Black Pearl have  been a disappointment.
2 Emperor Roderic: Lost to ordinary horse in debut, now runs with TS.
3 Tyrone Black: Unruly behavior while stalling in debut run, modest bred.
4 Balenciaga: Brought Abroad, should improve after a run experience.
5 Liberation: Appears to best for 7f.
6 Snowfall: Both Sire and Dam were a miler.
Conclusion: This is a race for pedigree experts. With my half baked knowledge I expect Balenciaga to run good
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Race-7: 1.A Star is Born
1 A Star Is Born: Impressive winner Of 2000G, this offspring of Angel Dust {Derby winner} can easily stay the Derby Trip.
2 Aries: Low rated, changes equipment.
3 Chopin: Winner of Ruia Gold Cup infamous for bringing bad form thereafter.
4 Regal Command: Full brother to Royal Chieftain who was effective over 9-10 furlong.
5 Souza: Rated 29!! Most probably will don a role of pace maker for Shroff Stables.
6 Sun Gold: Interfered in last run won by stablemate, extended trip will stretch stamina.
7 Zarak: Not a genuine performer with issues of hanging under pressure.
8 Zuccarelli: Won by a street in Bangalore Derby, commands respect.
9 Faith Of Success: Runs within a short period of 6 days after winning Derby at Hyd.
10 Miracle: The Modi of Current Indian Horse racing-Yet to face a defeat…But there is always a first time.
11 Winmylove: Indeed a honour for a horse to appear here whose first win was in a Class-5 Div-2 race
Conclusion: Trainer Pesi Shroff has 5 runners here and the entire Indian Racing world will keen to witness an unparallel event of an unbeaten filly winning Indian Derby. Current crop is so mediocre that this feat can be achieved.  Just watch this race or have a token bet of place on A Star is Born.

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 Race-8: 1.Kinnara

1 Kinnara: Failed fav in last run, well placed this time

2 The Awakening: Eases off in grade

3 Superleggera: longer odds Place Getter last time probably due to low weights, not good on class terms

4 Rubik Star: Drops in class but unplaced 5 times in this class in as many appearances

5 Pure: Slow Starter in 2000G, forward rolling tendencies may see him falter

6 Alfayiz: Handicap debut after decent performance in 3yrsm but first run after gelding hence ignoring.

7 Emrys: Debut run was in unfavourable trip, can improve significantly

8 Redifined: Earned better TR than winner in last run, Dam's other foals have failed to show out

 

Conclusion: Appears to be between Kinnara and The Awakening, former is preferred. Emrys cannot be ignored.

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 Try Rolling with a bare minimum investment 

Win: 1-3/2-2/3-5/5-3