Mumbai Invitation:Native Knight can upset

Hi,

Great day of racing awaits its patrons.


Race1:Numismatist(2)-Win

Bad race to start the day with where almost all runners have no credibility.Numismatist finished good second in its last outing over same distance inpsite of being stumbled at start,can do well this time.Sacred Relic in past was seen getting weakened over 8 furlongs,hence its ability to sustain this distance is doubtful.River Ministrel failed as fav in its last outing,will try start to finish tactics.Nara is winner of 1800mts,but does not seem to be interested in this race as evident by lack of trackwork.


Race2:Estevez(7)-Win

Violetta has best finishing time but not sighted in tracks after its last run which is not the pattern of winning.Estevez won well in handsome timing,should run a good race and can win even this higher set.Our Fortune is winner of same class,but if we compare its timing with that of Estevez on Nov 29,latter comes lot better and hence prefered as first choice.Forever Young may fill third slot.


Race3:Ijlal(19)-Win

Race with 21 contenders out of which only 4 horses are active in track.This is my shortlisted horses in that order.

Ijlal:If not for loss of whip of its rider would have been a winner in its last run,seen in tracks,drawn in innermost box so it either all the way in front or all the way in rear,has to be alert.

Pomme De Terre:Ignore its last 2 runs,now running in very ordinary set should be in 1-2.

War Major:Is fit,likes to run in front,outermost box is disadvantegous yet has chance to place in this poor set.

Paris Hilton:This aged horse will be different customer in this lower set and will place.

Ballad Of Glory:Trainer Antia has many horses,this one has capability to upset.


Race4:Beyond Stars(3)-Win

Beyond Stars has beaten Beautiful Stranger{winner of PBM},Serenity{won comprehensively on sat},is fit and merits top attention.
Bullet may upset over this extended distance.
Ocean Wish may peter out at all important end.

Dear Henry is full brother to Hotstepper,Juventus.Its trackwork suggests it needs more ground to make an impact.

Ocean Princess is working very well,can place.


Race5:Sea Ruler(10)-Win

Sprint Star is best of Bangalore lot i.e Aboline,Aristos,Celestial way and Splendid Surprise.Diego River comes lot better than Sprint Star if we take last Bangalore summer races in consideration.Diego River tried its best but could not beat Dancing Dyanamite in its last run.Dancing Dyanamite is shade better than Juventus if take Hyd invitation day race into consideration but one gets the feeling that DD was awarded that race and connections were more interested in winning Invitation cup on Autonomy.Juventus this time should reverse that verdict.But one horse which merits utmost attention is Sea Ruler who ran good second behind Jacqueline over identical distance,earlier won comprehensively clocking impressive finishing time and can win this race.



Race6:Cielo Rey(6)-Win

Cielo Rey is in rousing form and can defeat this set.Red Romeo needs to improve a lot to regain its past glory.Forest Flair lost to superior horse on Saturday,will try to make amends over this step up distance,can win.


Race7:Native Knight(7)-Win

Main Event of the day.

It is widely believed that Becket and Jacqueline will fight it out again and both of them will try to outwit other.Native Knight too is expected to add spice to finishing.Some points which makes us ponder

All this horses have run at same weight,same place and at same distance.Weakness and strengths of opponents have been revealed and there will be change of tactics this time.

Night odds does not indicate clear picture,,infact it creates more doubt.

I do remember comments of S Desousa ,rider of Native Knight in Indian Derby.He said his mount was one paced and he did error of waiting too long.So this time do expect Native Knight to take things seriously from last 300mts.

Becket is gusty horse who likes to overtake any horse that is in front,it did go in front in Indian Derby and eased up as if to say is there anyone around only to be surprised by Jacquelines superb turn of foot.Watch the Video of indian derby carefully,one can notice Becket giving strong rerun as soon as it saw Jacqueline over taking it.This time there will be change of tactics,i suppose in this race it will try to stay abreast with Jacqueline thru out the race and will make it move only when Jacqueline goes for final all out.

All said and done i do believe Native Knight can win this race.


Race8:Illuminate(6)/Visoniare(3)

Again a big field.This are my shortlisted choices in that order.

Illuminate was fav in race won by violetta{won thrice thereafter} before being withdrawn,has tendency of slow start,can do well over this extended trip.

Visionare won impressively clocking 11.45 sec for last 200mts,if not illuminate then this horse should grab winning spot.

Torcello has short burst of speed,may place.

De Nada has won only at Pune,failed to do well at this centre,may be fancied but at best can place.

Up North has very good initial speed and at this weight will try to run away,can hold on place berth at lucrative odds.

Shodaan has been consistent but no track after last run,hence can be ignored.


Race9:Il Tabarro(18)/Saints N Sinners(5)

Il Tabarro at this weight is live threat and can win.

Saints N Sinners has done nothing wrong,is rightful contender for winning berth.

Blumarine is disadvantegously placed in outer box ,may place.

Lyrical Lass is best suited for 1000mts,will not be able to carry this weight over 6 furlongs.

Aristocratic has many setbacks,extensively tracked,was very impressive in last season,much will depend on its fitness,should be included in JP.

Dear Liza was gifted race last time,do not get carried by the fact that El tropico which finished second beyond it won handsomely in its next outing,the fact is that El tropico could have won any time in that race.


Daysbest:Beyond Stars(4-3)

Double:Cielo Ray(6-6)

E/W:Estevez,Pomme De Terre,Sea Ruler

JP:

First

3		3		2
7	3	6	1	5
19		10	6	8

Second

3		2		5
6	1	5	3	6
10	6	8	6	18