Sha Tin 17.05

Just for academic interest and to kill time during Lockdown

NEXT POSTING: Wednesday, 20th May Happy Valley

They say proof lies in the pudding. So to check the success of our system I have allotted 100units of wagers. Let’s see what the final results would be like. I will judge the Rating system in this way if the final dividend units would be

Just 1 winner ...100 Units starting investment left with just 18.5 Units resulting in  loss of -81.5 Units

Verdict: worst SHOW

150>> Units ---Good

100> Units<150-- Average

50>Units<100 Units –Poor

<50 Units -Worst

 

Race1		10:30 AM
Sl	Name	DR
13	YOUNG GLORY	620
4	ENJOYABLE SUCCESS	614
9	AEROFLASH	614

 

Young Glory returns after a brief break and would go all out over its pet distance

Enjoyable Success warms up late and may relish this step up trip under a vigorous Jockey

AeroFlash is a maiden who gets services of local champion

Conclusion: Young Glory for each way in ratio of 2:8 [INV=10units]

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Race2		11:00 AM
Sl	Name	DR
9	DUBLIN STAR	763
3	PRECIOUS SWEETIE	738
4	COMFORT LIFE	738

 

Dublin Star who failed thrice as fav in its career of 5 runs seems to have clear advantage in numbers and may finally oblige this time

Precious Sweetie finished a decent 4^th over this Course, Class and Distance in last but one run, has dropped a lot in handicap and should run well

Lot of first timers here which can upset all calculations

Conclusion: Dublin Star for win 5 Units & Precious Sweetie for Place 5 Units[INV=10units]

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Race3		11:30 AM
Sl	Name	DR
10	ADONIS	716
6	JUDY'S STAR	715
4	DREAM WARRIORS	708
7	SMART CHARADE	708

 

Adonis was hampered for room in last 100mts and had to travel wide, can land riches here at huge odds

Smart Charade has dropped in handicap and gets services of stables preferred Jockey and stands decent chance to place

 

Conclusion: Adonis for each way in ratio of 2:3 and Smart Charade for place 5 units[INV=10units]

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Race4		12:00 PM
Sl	Name	DR
1	LET'S TAKE IT EASY	710
13	CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE	702
11	SUPER WINNER	699

 

Let’s Take It Easy after unsuccessful recent stint at Happy Valley returns to Sha Tin Race Course with drop in handicap and allowance claiming rider, relatively long straight of this course should help this one pace horse

Circuit Number One is a maiden who improved well in last run despite losing of left rein, same jockey repeats and can end up in place this time

 

Conclusion: Let’s Take It Easy for each way in ratio of 1:4 and Circuit Number One for place 5 units[INV=10units]

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Race5		12:30 PM
Sl	Name	DR
7	MIGHTY POWER	711
1	BIG BANG BONG	705
11	WINSTON'S LAD	698

 

Mighty Power despite poor performance comes on top in this set, allowance claiming Jockey has won 2 races recently and can utilize pace stalking tendency of this horse to land riches at good odds

Winston’s Lad has decent credentials to end up in place

Conclusion: Mighty Power for each way in ratio of 1:3 and Winston’s Lad for place 6 units[INV=10units]

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Race6		1:05 PM
Sl	Name	DR
7	BALTIC WHISPER	765
9	DIAMOND BRILLIANT	762
14	WHISKEY NEAT	761

 

Baltic Whisper despite rough passage finished a close 4^th in last run clocking impressive timings for last 400mts, same jockey repeats and should do well

Conclusion: Baltic Whisper for each way in ratio of 4:6 [INV=10units]

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Race7		1:35 PM
Sl	Name	DR
7	EVER LAUGH	683
8	CHEERFUL LEADER	683
6	GIFT OF LIFELINE	681

 

Everlaugh ran a decent forward run last time over mile, drop in distance and booking of top rider suggests connections are bullish about its chances against younger horses

Conclusion: Everlaugh for Win in of 5 units [INV=5units]

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Race8		2:05 PM
Sl	Name	DR
2	SUPER OASIS	683
4	ENRICHMENT	683
11	RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE	681

 

Super Oasis’s last run in Derby should be ignored, earlier finished close to better horses, comes here after good rest and should be strongly involved

Conclusion: Super Oasis for Win  of 12 units [INV=12units]

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Race9		2:40 PM
Sl	Name	DR
4	SMOOTHIES	710
11	TRIPLE TRIPLE	710
5	PICKEN	709

 

Smoothies has brilliant speed and will try to run away from the Word Go in hands of allowance claiming rider

Triple Triple is very well placed on handicap and should be involved in finish

Conclusion: Smoothies for Win of 8 Units and Triple Triple for place of 5 units [INV=13units]

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Race10		3:15 PM
Sl	Name	DR
5	MIG ENERGY	729
12	ELIGERE	723
11	PRESIDENT'S CHOICE	722

Mig Energy in last run was bit rusty in initial stages of races but rallied up very well in last 200mts to finish close, should do well this time

Conclusion: Mig Energy for each way in ratio of 4:6 [INV=10units] 

Will update final score by 4pm

Rno	Hno	Name	Type	Inv	Div	Final
1	13	Young Glory	Win	2 Units		-2	Units
			Place	8 Units		-8	Units
2	9	Dublin Star	Win	5 Units	2.7	13.5	Units
	3	Precious Sweetie	Place	5 Units		-5	Units
3	10	Adonis	Win	2 Units		-2	Units
			Place	3 Units		-3	Units
	7	Smart Charade	Place	5 Units		-5	Units
4	1	Let’s Take It Easy	Win	1 Units		-1	Units
			Place	4 Units		-4	Units
	13	Circuit Number One	Place	5 Units		-5	Units
5	7	Mighty Power	Win	1 Units		-1	Units
			Place	3 Units		-3	Units
	11	Winston Lad	Place	6 Units		-6	Units
6	7	Baltic Whisper	Win	4 Units		-4	Units
			Place	6 Units		-6	Units
7	7	EverLaugh	Win	5 Units		-5	Units
8	2	Super Oasis	Win	12 Units		-12	Units
9	4	Smoothies	Win	8 Units		-8	Units
	11	Triple Triple	Place	5 Units		-5	Units
10	5	Mig Energy	Win	4 Units		-4	Units
			Place	6 Units		-6	Units
			Total	100 Units		-81.5	Units