Mumbai Derby

Hi all,

Following is the analysis of D Day!!!!

Saturday results were quite shocking for all of us but we cannot ignore the fact that almost all races had many worthy contenders.Derby Day card is no different

Will put POST OPENING ODDS final calls by 11.30am
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Race1:

Alshamsheer won a race on Pune Derby,will try its best to repeat the same on Indian Derby day,has been consistent,on this No False rails day can kick on gamely till end

Shining Path has been prepared for this event,should place

Made To Measure’s last two runs can be ignored due to interference and stumbling,earlier runaway winner,may have some issues of staying till end

Vixen almost pulled a major coup in last run at longer odds,has not won in maidens hence lacks class

Centaurus has won in both runs in this distance,warms up late and as such very difficult in this tough set of class3

Satellite will be market fancy for obvious reasons,a horse which started its winning career with a win in class4 cannot be considered to win in class3 immediately however good bloodlines may be

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Race2

Celsius is not sighted in tracks,outermost draw will not allow it to hit front

In The Limelight is tracking very impressively,if apprentice can hold on to its nerves then it has decent chance to upset at longer odds,place seems certain

Ravello is progressing ideally,should be the one they all have to catch

Hidden Asset in its last two runs was ridden under check contrary to its known style of front running,with better saddle assistance and impressive final trackworks one can assume it to show its real potential here

Senorita Evita  may be fancied but in this scurry race will find difficult to make an impact

Spiderman’s last two runs were not true,has class evident by fact that it has beaten Solomon{twice winner},presence of quality sprinters will seriously test its ability to stay with front runners

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Race3:

Warpath quickened well in debut in last 200mts,has been prepared for this distance,has decent chance to win

Geronimo was hanging out badly in debut run,getting beaten to class4 horses in trials

Jeena with this rider looks difficult

Sacred Fire found Admirality{a classic in making} too hot to handle,tracking impressively and should be in strong contention

Sweep Aside after easy debut run has been showing out in trials,can upset

Pearl Secret still needs gate practice signifying the fact that it is restless and needs more sharpening

Mogadishu’s odds drifted northwards alarmingly,runs for first time after gelding

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Race4:

Dhiskyoan is drawn in outermost box,will not be able to hit front as required

Blazing Fire gave good forward run in its last run,got positive switch of rider,will be in contention

Greymist which ran third to Ravello{now  in class2} in debut just looks too good for this set of non performers,lack of trackwork is perplexing

Ghyana is ridden by winnerless rider

In My Life has worked up well,can place

Rock The Turf faces conflict of interest due to Blazing Fire

Rocking belongs to H J Antia who I guess will be mute spectator on this D Day

Superbolt in this shorter trip can place

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Race5:

Usually a horse which looses in handicap class then wins in maidens class has very little chance to win in higher class but Fibonacci Sequence did this feat,upon close scrutiny it was found that it lost to superior horse in handicap class,has weights in favor,prepared well,can place at lucrative odds

Polydences exhibited its class when it won directly in class 2 after clearing maidens,its run in 1000G can be ignored,has decent chance to win

Your Royal Majesty was beaten by Polydences when former was giving just 1.5kgs now it is giving 5 kgs,offcourse it has ran some great races but giving weight to same age contenders,bit too much of asking

Desert Wings has not been able to win in this class,facing too tough set to beat

Set To Fly seems to have lost form,runs in demotion,will be prominent till last 200 mts before packing off

Remember Me gets its fav rider,can sneak in place

Tammy O ,Bombardier,Manakel,Monza,Alecto and Celtic king looses due to distance and class imcompatibility

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Race6:

Double Or Quits has feel of distance,working very impressively stays close to pace and has decent chance inspite of top weight

Midnight Dancer is not sighted in tracks or pool after last run

Dance Debonaire tends to fall back after 10 furlongs no recent trackwork noted

Arglye Pink performs only in class5

Riochett was seen finishing on well in both starts of this season,can upset

Saporelli which was finishing on well over 8-9 furlongs was installed as hot fav in last run over

2000mts,cud not sustain the distance and when urged for response hung out badly

Azdagen runs in this class for first time,just managed to hold on its last run

Bethpage was tired and beaten in race no 77 over 1600mts

Savage Garden runs over apt distance,can surprise

Sir Song surprisingly runs in negative change of shoes

Secret Mission failed in lower class,ignore

Oceana failed as fav in lowest class,ignore

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Race7:

Stateira which is full sister to Zegna was fav in debut where it was seen moving up well in last 100mts,seen getting beaten to class 4 horses

Kyoto which gave good mockrace is seen urged for response in final fast trackwork

Phoenix Fire which is full brother to Nesto was way behind till bend in debut run but started galloping ground devastatingly once alighted for task,should be in contention

Intelligence was ridden hands and heels without much pressure yet was seen devouring ground,can upset here

Columbiana which ran green in debut yet finished second to very good horse is surprisingly made to run with Blks

Redbug has impressed in mockrace and preparation,do not ignore atleast for JP

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Race8THE MCDOWELL SIGNATURE INDIAN DERBY (GRADE 1)

For Indian Horses 4 years old only.

Selections

1.Be Safe

5.Illidian

2.Bold Majesty

Be Safe has beaten Bold Majesty in Bangalore Derby

             Has beaten Congressional Shivalik Storm in 2000G

His Highess has not even cleared class3

Illidian has impressed in its last win,prepared for this event,will try its best

Quasar is stablemate of Be Safe—Will Narredu go against especially when Turf Baron MAM himself has shown keen interest to win Indian Derby

Tiger Tops likes to dictate its own pace,presence of many pace setters will not allow it to settle properly

Rest all for numbers

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Race9:

Earl Grey runs in class 5 immediately from maidens,cannot win as per class terms

Aleta ran along good horses,qualifies as per class terms,seen urged for response in trials which is not a good sign

Blackbean was ridden by whipless rider in last run,will be in contention now

Dia which ran unextended till now can extend its best here

Speedup gets top DR due to notable second in its last run,no trackwork noticed after that run

Izzara is blessed with speed,drawn advantegously in inner box,can make it start to finish affair on this No False Rails day

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