Review of Hyderabad 7th December
Monday, January 7, 2013
Best way to learn handicapping is to re handicap after races.It gives insight into what went wrong and what correct.
Race1:
Sheikhs Emperor thru out ran in rear and inspite of riders best efforts did not raise gallop at any stage.bad choice
Perfect as expected was on job.
Race2:
Not even a single newspaper,race books or tipster tipped Twinkle Of An Eye,infact no one tipped it even as upset.
I took a risk in tipping it inspite of First run but all gone in vain as it opened at measly odds of 2/1 and further backed down to 1.5.
Race3:
This is new tactics of bookies,,,if they cannot manage they offer very low odds..Skylight Express won impressively but at odds of 3/10..Seriously no one bets at this odds.
Race4:
Bad judgement in ignoring Maid for love,last run was moving well thru rails.
Baba's Gift lost all the chances when super dud A Ramana was declared to ride.
Nano Tribute surprisingly chose Start to finish tactics.
Race5:
Prince Prashant has been an enigma to me.Whenever i tip it loses and immediately in its next outing it wins.Its manner of victory in race no 18 was very very impressive and hence was on my watch list.Horse looked dull and obese.
Molla defied class penalty,it came top in timings but class up so ignored it.
Race6:
Aerosmith won as expected.
Toli3 disappointed,can be ignored from here on.
Bound For Glory was the second horse of the day which performed well in higher class taking advantage of low weights,a lesson to be learnt that performers of class 3 should not be ignored in class 2 if they are lowest weight
Race7:
So Super won but low odds.
Race8:
Alexander Square appeared and ran like dud,was sporting bandage legs,something seriously wrong with it,should be ignored from here on,bad judgement
Guiding Light finished good second to Windsor Manor,now with top jky astride,ignoring it was not wise.
Indian Epic seems to have liking for rails,was boxed up again at crucial juncture of race.
Race9:
Pacific Star was winner of mockrace and won very very impressively,ignoring it was bad judgement.
Montego Bay was not disgraced in this loss,will win again in this distance.
Silver Arnage in place was surprising as it has never showed any form,may be the fancied or the ones which had chance took easy as Winner was visible.
20 comments:
Very good and honest attempt. As you tipped horse No 10 in Race No 2 Ruchi tipped Horse No 11 in the last race.
Very good and honest attempt. As you tipped horse No 10 in Race No 2 Ruchi tipped Horse No 11 in the last race.
Well its an open world... your blog is read by punters and bookies alike.. so if they feel you are on a roll they offer lower odds.... who likes to lose money? regarding your day's best 'Prince Prashant' there was frenzied punting on it, I think it was more just pure horse racing, some big punter would have played big the bookies didn't want pay up.. called up their connections and the horse lost because we felt it should at least run on board if not won...avoid Mr Chisty and other such seasoned 'saddle artists' (one is suspended) as days best
i have the same doubt, Now a days specifically HYD bookies, looking your selections. Lot of people are following ur selections. Thats why they were
changing their game plan. so please do some alternative. like timing of posting, post only in blog etc.
your selections filter an almost impossible racing events which I feel 40% run on merits and 60% fixed.Ur selections are definately a strong guideline whatever the outcome.thanks.
Trainers in Hyd take turns. One week you see D Netto and his partner R Sequeria trying all there horses. Next week blank. This was seen yesterday along with A Vatsalya. One can never predict Diliva and his tactics. Deshmukh also was no interested to win the whole day. Abbas made sure he had a double.
iam aware of what you are saying
Bookies of hyd are purposely giving low odds to selections of this blog..not because of merit but because of the fact that many are punting on it,so offer low odds,risk is minimised.
Many times i have mentioned that if a tip this will loose.
LD horses definetely fail if i tip them.Even the 20-roll bet was halted by "ICE LOLLY" which won like a champion in its next outing
From now on i will write and save but publish only 2 hours before race time
Yes Ruchi is very good tipster..I have high regards for his ratings and his reading of race card.
My pain is that TwinkleOfAnEye should have been atleast 8/1..odds are prepared based on media and race book selections..No one tipped it even as upset..then how come it opened at 2/1
Yes i know that.Prince Prashant indeed proved to be DAYS BEST but for bookies...merrily ate even for place..
Last week i was told that one big punter backed 50k on Transition at 7/1..Must be the same person who might have bet very big on PP
Selections of Golimaster and Srikanth are sold at gates of HRC.Due to long writeups and constant change in style of tipping they cannot sell printouts of this blog.
Racing is great game of leveller.Few bad days and no one will even notice you.
Whatever i want to blog like the bird sings,not worrying about who hears or what they think!!
But all goes in vain if we end up in loss
Yes indeed true.
sir please publish ur selections before two hours only so that some tipsters and bookees have no time to copy ur tips and made some alter and sell as paid tipster and for bookies no time for to fix races
will it not appear like iam bestowing myself undeserved importance? Races will be fixed like they were fixed before.
I was just responding to one of the comments...Never was my intention to show attitude..thats something i would never like to be associated with..We will do best what we can do..let others do what they feel is best
Putting this conversation to rest here
Dear Vinodh,
Can you please help me out on this. This is an article in IR written by one Ektha Tiger
Make racing simple.
>Learn to calculate speed rating. Find out projected time for today's distance. Take only the horse's previous run. Maximum last two runs.
WHEN HE SAYS PROJECTED TIME. How it is calculated.
>How it run watch the video replay of the race, Create a table to make time adjustments ( for Blood Vessel broken , Jockey or Trainer reprimanded, fined or suspended, Lame, Hung out or Hung in, slow start, etc...) or according to your instinct.
THIS I UNDERSTOOD
>Compare the projected timing with "that day's higher class race" and "Course Record time" and keep it in mind when you take a final call.
How is this done
my dear punter, let him publish what he plans for few weeks. please do not force him, he will helps like before. So please take copy of selections nearest race club centre TWO hours before.
I hope you can understand.
this is my way of calculation
Timing+ difference of penotrometer reading *150 +Weight difference
Table would look like this
Hno Timings PR Pre weight Present weight Adjusted time
Prepare this in excel sheet
And under Adjusted time column paste this formula
B2+(3-C2)*150+(E2-D2)
Where
[B2=Timings converted in 1000,,ie 1.12.6 becomes 7260]
C2=Has penotrmoter reading of that run
D2=Weight carried in that run
E2=Weight carried in present run
Followin points have to be noted
Always take timings of same class
Look for race in which it was fully tried as evident by jky and odds
After entering timings for all horses sort the table by Adjusted timings in ascending order..the one with lowest timing comes on top
Then start applying other handicap conditions like trackwork,jky,distance suitability,its current form
r2 1400 pr rt
9 8564 2.5 8579
5 8576 2.5 8591
11 8653 2.7 8638
3 8685 2.7 8670
6 8671 2.6 8671
4 8825 2.5 8840
2 9012 2.6 9012
This how table of second race of Mys 9th december looks like...Weight difference i do manually to avoid cumbersome work of entering too many entries in single row
Dear Vinodh,
Thanks for sparing time on this. Have a great week!!!
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