Sunday A humbling day for Dosage Readers

 

Dardanus and Prokofiev both as per their Dosage profiles were good till mile only however both won over 9-10 furlongs and justified the punters trust. 

After re evaluation of Dardanus's dosage profile I understand that small sample are not reliable and should be treated with caution. His numbers were 1-3-4-0-0 DI 3.00 CD 0.63  clearly DI and CD restricted his limit till mile but sample size was very small (8). Lesson learnt don't rely on Dosage with small numbers

Prokofiev, I agree was misread by me, too much emphasis on last run where he struggled to stay over mile, yesterday won uncontested from start to finish delighting punters who backed it on Sponsorship theory

Stud poker ,our strong fancy since his debut win disappointed, could not settle well thru out and finished an all effort poor second behind too good D'artagnan. Pesi is a master, no doubt about it, his other runner ensured that Stud Poker never got a free passage till last 300mts, All Fair, champions are not made by kindness or soft feelings

Bangalore 20.06

 

Race-1: THE ARCHER (5)

ASTERION: Chose start to finish tactics on a heavy track last time, with CNB on will change tactics and can stay this distance but needs to time it perfectly, infection reported after last run

BLACK IRISH: Debut run after good eye catching mock and fast run, dosage suggests this gelding may warm up late and can find distance sharp

INCREDIBLE LUCK: Related to group winners, first run after gelding operation with a change of equipment on a new track, preparation devoid of fast works

LEGACY FIELD: a 1200mts horse pitched in mile, ignore

THE ARCHER: Most ideally suited for this distance and should run a good race

DIGITAL EMPRESS: Blessed with  ideal speed and stamina for this Mile distance and should be keen to recoup loss as fav in last run

Conclusion: Quite a few mile oriented pedigree horses pitched here. While Asterion and  Digital Empress have exposed form over mile here The Archer can stump them all by  excelling to his best over most ideally suited distance

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Race-2: EXCEED (8)

FORTIS: Well-bred, lost as fav last time, wide draw under a whip-less Jockey makes it a tough preposition

FINLEY: Only C&D winner but a blood vessel suspect that may not be tried fully in summer conditions

ZIVA: Will not sustain

PRINCE OF WALES: Won well in both starts of season, penalty and a tougher higher class

CORINTHAN: Clean slate in class, could not deliver in 5yrs group last time, struggling in summer conditions 

EXCEED: Failed fav of lower class in last run, 1.5kgs penalty, working well and can do well at low weights

KNOTTY CRUISE: Was an impressive repeat pattern winner in last run, no recent trackworks

ALAMGIR: Knocking door, looks sharp in trials and a low handicap can aid an improved performance

Conclusion:  Trainer S S Attaollahi has placed 3 runners. 8 can deliver however 3 cannot be ruled out completely.

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Race-3: HONEY POT (8)

STELLA MARRIS: Failed fav pitched in a suitable step up trip of same class with 1/2 kg penalty

ART OF ROMANCE: Returned bleeding in last run but seems to have recovered well as evident by decent fast work

CARTER: Dropped rider at the start, fast work on 16/06 is suggestive, can stay this mile trip

BRUCE ALMIGHTY: Pitched in lowest class with better Jockey, dropped below lowest winning mark indicating loss of form completely

HONEYPOT: Signs of a gamble, can stage pillar to post victory

LEX LUTHOR: Appeared in two mock races after planting in the seasonal debut, Jockey has won twice in as many runs with this Jockey but has clean slate in Summer

SHOCK AND AWE: All out effort last time over this Class and Distance, further improvement looks unlikely

Conclusion: Trainer Narayan Gowda may execute a gamble in form of 2 or 8

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Race-4: SHUTTERFLY (7)

EDISON: Has been prepared ideally for debut over this1400mts race but dosage suggests a sprinter prospect

SEIZE THE GUY: Has tactical speed, if settles well in track debut can do better than expected

WAVES OF WONDER: Has excellent 1400mts profile but T-J of 0/4/5/104 suggests this is test run

EVOLVITA: Run advantage, improves with distance but may prefer 1600mts better

ON THE RISE: Good race experience over 6f, most ideally suited for this distance, recent works are suggestive and should be strongly involved

ROYAL LEGACY: Related to Prokofiev, should improve significantly in second run of career

SHUTTERFLY: Debut in strong company, has excelled in fast works, natural speed can enable a good spot initially to stay ahead of congestion. 

Conclusion: Highly competitive race. Shutterfly can get better of Royal Legacy. On the Rise is worth taking a chance for place 

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Race-5: MAYNE MAGIC (3)

DUKE OF TUSCANY: Ideal trip in second run on track, distance suits but all good performances came at lower grade centers

RAMIEL: Bred for further distance likes Derby, St Ledgers and Stayers

MAYNE MAGIC: Juggernaut halted in last run while losing to a better horse, can resume over favorable extended trip

MIRACLE STAR: Won on common canter last time, proven form but has less proven stamina than MM

POSITANO: Improves with distance, wide draw may force him to settle in rear for most part of the race

GALAHAD: Not a natural stayer and relies on lead and maintaining it, will not extend against superior horses

KINGS GAMBIT: Has good speed and momentum , will be wiser in second run on the this track

ALFONSINE: Excellent bred that is pitched against class-1 proven horses while carrying 1kgs overweight

GOLD EMPIRE: Has won 12-14f races contrary to her dosage profiles at a second grade center Kolkotta, cannot compete against better horses here

AZALEA: Beaten in last run, Rated 24 pitched against 124-110 rated horses !!!

Conclusion: Mayne Magic for win and Kings Gambit for place appeals most in this terms race

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Race-6: BRIGHT THUNDER (2)

BRIGHT THUNDER: Impressive winner on debut, possess natural speed and can carry winning form to handicap as well

FEELING GOOD: Dropped to attractive mark but not a sprinter hence ignoring for this run

ACES UP: No show in last run due to wide draw, warms up late and will be more effective over 1400-1600

BRAVE HEART: A modest bred making handicap debut after insipid show in maiden races

WINDCLEAVER: A decent bred runner that will be ridden by a top Jockey for first time

DOUBLE YOUR MONEY: An ordinary bred sprinter drawn in innermost barrier for a possible start to finish attempt

Conclusion: Bright Thunder baring mishap or mal intention should win. Win cleaver may fill runner up berth

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Race-7: EAGLE EYES (1)

1.EAGLE EYES:  S John, a Jockey turned trainer has a realistic chance of getting the first winner with this horse provided apprentice lad manages a pace stalking position, has best time form rating, first time Blinkers on

2.SICYON: Like always shines in morning trials but somehow ends up in tough spot during race { reports of frequent interferences} 

3. SPLENDID DREAMS: Surprise winner in last start, pitched in unfavorable trip under a moderate penalty

4. VALIANT DREAMS: Lost in seasonal debut as hot fav but won attractively in next outing to validate the form of Winter R-13 where it beat horses many of whom have won this season, goes up in class under a steep penalty

5. NIGHT RAIDER: Impressive winner from pillar to post last time, a similar effort in higher class under penalty over extended trip may stretch the stamina

8. PERFECT ATTITUDE: Drops in handicap but may target a lower class later

9. GLORIOUS STRIDES: Won well last time however TR earned is bit low

Conclusion: Quite a few last start winners make this race interesting. Eagle Eyes for win and Sicyon for place makes best appeal

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DAYS BEST: [6-2] BRIGHT THUNDER

NEXT BEST: [7-1] EAGLE EYES

Bangalore 21.06

 Apologies for no Saturday posting without prior information

Race-1: Meghanan (4)

1.CHISOX: A speedy rig that can sprint well in this lowest class { never missed a place spot in this C&D} decent credentials

3.MEGA SUCCESS: No two runs are similar, needs 1400mts at least

4.MEGHANAN: Showed glimpses of old form when it ran a decent forward run in last run, won a similar race last summer and stays in contention

4.AMAZING STORM: Perfect 1200mts filly but could not show any notable form even in easier grades

8.EMBOSOM: One paced type that stays in same position thru out, cannot be fancied for win 

9.DR CHOLESTAR: Seems to have improved in last two runs

Conclusion: All horses in this lowest class have poor form-lines, in such scenario I try to fancy front runners who can steal the race as rest of the field struggles. Chisox and Meghanan qualify on that count

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Race-2: CR SEVEN (4)

2. APHELION: A modest bred 6f specialist makes handicap debut under a top Jockey, has impressed in recent trials

3. MAGESTIC PERSONA: Victim of inept handling in last run, ran well against better horses earlier

4. CR SEVEN: In penultimate run was fancied strongly in this class, unsuccessfully though, not a pure sprinter but  with aid of CNB can do well.

8. BEST OF US: Drops to lowest class, lacks speed so a whip-less Jockey will struggle to be with pace 

Conclusion: Again a low quality race. Aphelion holds a distinct advantage in form department however CR Seven is open to improvement

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Race-3: OSAKA (9)

1.AGASTHEYESHWARA: A modest bred from Hyd that will use Bangalore runs for experience gaining

2. ZOBEL: Bred for longer distance, momentum building fast works in trials suggests this debut over sprint is a conditioning effort for future races 

3.ASTRID: Related to group winners, showing out in trials but a second string Jockey tempers enthusiasm

5. FINE SILVER: First foal of lightly raced Dam, stretched out well with same Jockey in final fast work 

7. FLAVINUS:  Working well in  trials after an easy debut, her dosage profile suggests she is a late grinder hence bound to struggle in this sprint race

8. MONSTERA: Both runs of career were in superior company, can excel in this relatively easier set

9. OSAKA: Surprisingly in last run Top Jockey chose a start to finish tactics only to lose eventually, most balanced profile for this 1200mts and a win is not far away

10. Rizz: Dosage indicates decent speed and stamina, prepared ideally showing a blow out, stretching and gate practice. Paddock looks and betting movements should be considered 

Conclusion: Nice competitive sprint race for 3yrs maiden horses. Preference is given to experienced horses which at this stage favors Osaka and Monstera

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Race-4: MANDATE (9)

1.THRILL OF BRAZIL: Is the only Class and Distance winner in this set, however that win came at a much lower handicap, mare carrying top weight is bound to struggle

3. BORTOLINO: An eye catching winner in last start, maintains form and can carry winning momentum in handicap class as well

5. DARDANUS: Winner of a sprint race in debut in November, has been given conditioning and momentum building gallops in trials but his sprint leaning dosage profile makes it hard to fancy him over 9 furlongs

9.MANDATE: Impressed in mock race after planting in reappearance run, this foal of a Oaks winner had realistic chance but the jockey booked to ride weighs 2kgs more than the handicap weight hence an overweight of 2kgs, still cannot be discounted easily

Conclusion: Ideal class-weight and pedigree to stay this 9 furlongs race becomes primary tool to pick a winner. Bortolino looks good on all count however Mandate is a live danger

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Race-5: STAR STUDDED (3)

1.PROKOFIEV: Peak ceiling of distance suitability revealed in last run where the gelding could not maintain momentum over mile, extra 400mts will stretch stamina

2. INSPIRE: Placed in progressive distances from 1400, 1600mts to 2000mts now, improves with distance however uninspiring preparation of just one blow out exercise between last run to this run is not an encouraging factor

3. STAR STUDDED: Foal of an Indian Derby winner performed well at Kolkotta, finished a close 3rd in track debut over 1400mts last week, with better Jockey stays in contention

4. ICE OF FIRE: Winner of 1000G in Winters, mile appears to be best she can do so tough to fancy under a second string jockey over 10f

5. CACCINI: Strong classic profile validated by an impressive win in track debut, can defy a lenient penalty.

Conclusion: Proven form over this distance favors Caccini and Star Studded. 

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Race-6: STUD POKER (6)

2.D'ARTAGNAN: Winner of Indian Colts stakes at Mumbai, stamped his class by a mighty impressive win in last run here while beating a strong set, obvious claims for this first classic of the season

3. KNOTTY EMEPEROR: Impressive winner in debut, flashy works in trials, dosage supports the  mile trip but will need a huge class lift to beat proven milers

5. SIEGE STORM: Was ridden shabbily last time with a momentary pause at bend and thereafter warming late only to find D'artagnan steal the show, recent trials are suggestive

6. STUD POKER: Was such an impressive winner in debut {Time form Rating 108} that I noted in my book he will win Colts Champion stakes before heading for a 2000G quest. A speedy mile oriented pedigree can ensure a safe passage of start to finish

7. ZAYYANA: Second entry of P Shroff most probably as pace maker or spoiler 

Conclusion: First classic of the season The Colts Champion stakes boils down to a fight of supremacy between local champion trainer Prasanna { Horses 3,5 and 6} and Mumbai Champion trainer P Shroff { Hno 2&7} 

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Race-7: STEFFEN (6)

1. LAUTERBRUNNEN: Drops to performing class {1 win and 1 third in two runs }, belongs to scheming connections

3. ZAYYANA: Consistent this season, will be carrying 1kg penalty

4. HUSHED: Fancied successfully by her scheming connections, tough to repeat under penalty

5. PANDUR: A speedy gelding that winner of last start in Winter, struggles in First up runs {0/0/0/4 are the stats for first run which shows performance after a break of 100 and over days}

6. STEFFEN: Winner of lower class last time, lightly penalized and drawn well for a repeat start to finish show

7. SUPREME SUCCESS: A well-bred gelding that recently cleared maiden status, hard to fancy over this pure sprint

8. JALWA: Last run excuse of stumbling, earlier won well validating form of R-13 of Winter, can be effective if pace is too hot or collapses 

Conclusion: A Pure sprint that will reward strong front runners. Steffen can get this race

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Race-8: 10. NRI JET POWER (10)

1. JOYFUL SPIRIT: Drops to target class, race time odds will give clear picture, if fancied should be treated carefully else ignore

4. MYSTICAL DIVINE: Has good speed but drawn wide

6. LG'S SCRIPT: A rare failed gamble from a powerful Loknath Gowda stable, retained at same mark but tough to fancy this late moving horse over a sprint

7. MY SOLITAIRE: Won a race in this class last summer with the same jockey, all positive signs

9. LEGANDARY IMPACT: Failed to deliver at favorable mark in weaker sets

10. NRI JETPOWER: Started slowly in seasonal debut, appeared in a mock race on 16/06, can upset all calculations

Conclusion: All horses belong to scheming connections

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DAYS BEST: [6-6] STUD POKER