Hyderabad 24th December
Monday, December 24, 2012
What a way to win!!!! Machiavellinism by winning 2000 Guineas at Mahalaxmi has revealed his class which is far more superior than over hyped Western Horses.It simply decimated the entire so called strong field.In popular racing forum i could see all experts and tipsters completely ignoring it just because it was horse from Hyderabad and that itself is good reason to discard its chances.
One can say that i too ignored it and instead tip An Acquired Taste.First thing i do when handicapping a graded races is to spot top rated horses[done by adjusting weight difference].Machiavellinism was at 100 followed by Silver Birch at 99 and rest others way below at 86.I resisted tipping Machiavellinism as it would appear that iam just supporting a Hyd race.Opted for next best.
Anyways nothing to take away from the team of Machiavellinism who have worked very hard to keep it in best shape.Kudos to Mr L V R Deshmukh,i just want to tell you that there was a huge round of applause at HRC for your horse.
Card looks good.
Opening odds out.
R1)Dandelion at 3/10!!!...Looks like ex mayor wants to make his presence felt among horse owners..can win but who will bet on this odds.Place odds on Ray Of Hope and Fencourt will be atleast 1.5 and looks good option.
R2)FFat 75/100 and FM at 13/10..former is too good and should win..race time odds may go down further.
R3)As expected Power Divine is at 18/10 but promotion at 18/10 attracts attention,,,if it sustains at this odds during race time then it is a good betting option.Ciel Blu at 5/1 can be used as hedge bet
R4)Smart Striker at 4/1 is kill of the day..Cherry Hill at 13/10 does not represent the value
R5)Specialist at 11/10..odds may drift further..Snow Bird at 3/1 is good option.
R6)Montplier at 3/10 is good lay bet of the day hedge with good place bet on Handsome Hunk which will be atleast 1.5
R7)Sea Runner in odds is surprising,can be a gamble..Dont worry if race time odds jump upto 5/1..thats bookies tactics..if it shoots over 7/1 then ignore and opt for Homely Halo
R8)Golden Dash at 4/1 does not represent the true value..looks like there was some heavy morning betting on it..Expect it in range of 5-8 during race time,if less ignore
R9)Desert Bloom at 12/10 is quoted higher,if odds come down during race time back it or else E/W on True Scholar is good option,.
Race1:Ray Of Hope(6) [Waited too long to make it move]
Ray Of Hope is half sister to Attractress,working very well,can win on debut.
Dandelion lost due to over confidence of rider in its last run,now runs with TS on with top saddle artist astride,if tried with STF tactics will fail due to false rails.
Fencourt is prepared well,will place.
Tanala [24 Tickets]
3
|
||
4
|
4
|
F
|
6
|
6
|
Race2:Fastest Finger(1) [Denied clear run]
Fastest Finger was too good winner on debut where it ran thru out under check yet won very easily.will be hard to beat .
Fearless Mission drifts under pressure,cannot beat FF.
Race3:Promotion(7) [Bad choice]
Promotion ran impressive forward race in its debut,with +ve switch of rider and Shoes,should make everyone run for their money.
Ciel Blu was ridden in check last time which resulted in horse getting inbalanced momentarily and thereafter failed to accelerate,if ridden freely can do well.
Power Drive was bumped at start then at 800mts was badly taken out as result of which drifted out badly and was forced to make it way around bend almost on sand track,was seen moving well,with better saddle assistence will be fancied.
Tanala [28 Tickets]
3
|
||
4
|
4
|
F
|
7
|
7
|
Race4:Smart Striker(7) [Bad Choice.ignoringWinner of Mock raceDartos The Muscle]
Cherry Hill is non winner even after 24 runs,running in this lowest class for first time but ridden by a rider who is yet to get a winner this season even after 22 runs.
Baba's Gift can upset,place is certain
Lady Luck was lethargic thru out,will be fancied due to rider and bks,looks difficult for win.
Smart Striker was seen moving well in last run,now with ace jockey astride has good chance to win
Tanala [36 Tickets]
5
|
||
7
|
6
|
F
|
14
|
Race5:Wedding Gift(1) [Bad choice..Snow Bird was good]
Wedding Gift has been consistent,last run was eye catching,can upset.
Snow Bird was unsettled by slow pace in last run,can do well over this extended trip.
Specialist found higher class tough to handle,will be fancied again.
Tanala [14 Tickets]
1
|
||
2
|
5
|
F
|
Race6:Handsome Hunk(4) [Junk Horse,bad choice]
Montplier was disqualified last run for dangerous riding,that bunch was weak,now facing tough bunch,this race will be litmus test of its calibre,winning looks bit tough.
Handsome Hunk is rapidly coming down in scales and this handicap is live threat to one and all,should not get beaten here
Tanala [8 Tickets]
4
|
3
|
F
|
Race7:Homely Halo(7) [Bad Choice]
Ashleen state has lost form.non winner for 2 yrs,not in tracks for last 15 days.
Homely Halo in this shorter distance is live force,impressive gate practise,winner has to beat it.
Commanche Gold will be fancied due to + switch of rider and shoes,can oblige
Tanala [16 Tickets]
7
|
7
|
F
|
8
|
8
|
Race8:Golden Dash(2)--Days Best [Lost whip near 200mts]
Golden dash was seen moving very well in its last run,should win.
Maharidi remains non winner ,has tendency of getting weakened after 1400ms,last run was exception
Sarvagna trailed in its last run,now runs with multiple change of equipments,earlier runs not so impressive.
Fortunate was fortunate enough to win in its last win,even though lightly penalised,repeat of same is not possible
|
Race9:True Scholar(6) [Blocked up in rails at all important end..One3 was tipped by Track Friend thats why included in Tanala]
Best Pal will not be able to carry this weight over this distance,will fold up in last 50mts.
Fine Racer in this group will not be able to do much.
Attenborough just managed to hold on its last run,will not be able to carry this weight,can be ignored.
True Friend will find this distance sharp
Kohinoor Pride has failed to impress in this class,not in tracks
True Scholar now runs with +ve change of shoes,last two runs were impressive indicating its regaining of monsoon form,even though distance is bit sharp,can do well
Desert Bloom is on roll winning three back to back races,lightly penalised,facing weak set of higher class,no reason to discard its chances
Tanala [28 Tickets]
6
|
6
|
|
7
|
7
|
F
|
8
|
13 comments:
sir , any good tanala combinations :)
how did machinlsm lost race on 9 th odd was 20 paise ha ha ///sab chori ha harami /fraud ha
eh chor fraud ownero ki peddigre batoo handikaping /track all fcking shit...
u donot hv guts t write abt chor owner///
jain lost t dunjiboy ...ha ha who finished last
all dakoo r in ....
In that case RWITC shud have not allowed Machiavellinism to run as it lost as hot fav.May be they can frame a new rule that if a Hyd horse has lost as hot fav it is not entitled to run in classic races
Last time it lost due to over over confidence of rider,took things way very easy and paid price for the same.It was also denied clear run in final 100mts
If u assume that everything in racing is "Honest and Fair" then u grossly mistaken and in wrong place.On contrary Honesty,transparency in Indian Horse racing is as much visible as shame of our present Government
It was indeed a good and well planned game, punters have to catch this things, if fav wins all the time nobody can survive ! Congs to the team of HYD
Dear Vinodh,
True Scholar for 1200?? I assume that it would be best suited for 1400. Also I would much appreciate if you could provide Tanala combination for all races.
Yes it has won earlier in 1400mts.On winter track it may settle well and can make an impact.
Dear Vinodh,
Just wanted to share a few thoughts. As asked of you earlier, I request that you please think of some of the trainers too. For e.g. Sathish. This guy wins once in a blue moon. So unless if the horse is too good please mention else ignore. In short you can also keep a tab of performing trainers(strike rate) likewise with the jockeys.
Please give it a thought. Also any long shot please mention. It will be upto the readers to play or not.
Yes iam thinking of changing my tipping style.
Now i will first review and assess hot fancies however short priced they may.Will list out top 3 in all races.Will give my opinion on all the three and leave the final decision to readers to decide.
iam really surprised by failures of my fancy horse..either iam ignoring some vital points or just plain unlucky.Will spend entire week to recheck my data files.Golden dash merited win bet as per my record..disappointed to see it run like dud.
Time to renew old contacts.My friend who happens to be track reporter tipped Dartos the Muscle,Laurel Canyon,one one one as jobbers,that was the reason they were included tanala combinations even though there were not in original selections.Cannot ignore advice of person who seems them tracking.
Satish is useless trainer,no point in tipping his duds
Dear Vinodh,
To begin with I and behalf of all your avid readers would like to thank you for the effort that you put in day in day out.
I too had played Golden Dash but as LUCK would have it the jockey lost his whip in a crucial juncture. It would be very foolish to blame you for that.
I guess Dartos the Muscle was a good X mas gift.
With regard to trainers YES. No point in playing horses of the Sathish's , Darashah , Eshwers to name a few. If they win SO BE IT.
Also can you let me know the whereabouts of a jockey called C Umesh. Is he suspended by any chance?
A suggestion : In your write up you can add a column "Long priced horse - play at your risk" or something like that. Reason is, there are many punters like me who are averse to playing short priced horses. Win or lose the call would be with us.
Again wishing you a Happy and Properous 2013. Keep in touch.
u say last time it lost due to over confidence of rider.why was rider not suspended.what had it been any apprentice jockey like jvikash or raju singh(remember in mumbai)or tushar nemane).stewards are bosses at hynerabad or ps chouhan.I sont think u can answer this.
Dear Vinod there have been times in the very recent past where in you have given 5 - 6 winners in a day, so I don't think there is a need to change your style of picking winners, as far as 'selected horses' not performing it is a matter of chance and luck... whatever the argument might be; horse racing or gambling is directly related to the 'luck factor' so please don't take 'failed selections' to heart, you are doing a wonderful job, and you know best whats working for you and whats not, wishing you and the readers of the blog a Happy X Mas, thanks
Post a Comment