Spearhead For Derby

Hi,

D Day of Bangalore summer season.One of the best Derby field i have seen in my short racing career.My instinct says this Derby will be won by Vijaymallya's horse,may be it will reduce little bit of pain that defeat of Set alight gave.

Race1:Saptwasha(2)/Live it up(5)

My way of handicapping longer distance race is simple.I prefer horses which have travelled that distance atleast twice beating half of the field or should have won a race of 400mts less distance.In this case we need a horse which should have won a race over 1800mts or travelled 2200mts atleast twice beating half of the field.Only two horses qualify..Saptwasha and Live it up.I prefer former as it is entrusted to its fav jockey who earlier rode him to 6 lengths victory over identical distance in same class,where as Live it up has beaten all non jobbers and at best can finish second only.

Race2:Act Of Duty(2)/Kalyan(7)

Ignore last of Act of Duty where it found Express it too hot to handle and choose to run easy thru out,looks outstanding in this set and should be a easy winner.Kalyan in running in apt distance and will extend its best,good place bet.Nearcomaster inspite of poor jockey astrides looks good for place.Jia Yoh Jia Yoh has not been consistent,hence ignored.

Race3:Alacrity(4)/Edmondo(5)

Alacrity on basis of its runs along with superior horses may be fancied.It won in class 20-45 beating non jobbers,now running on double promotion ,yet faces no threat except for some resistence from Edmondo or Elpaso.

Race4:Glitterato(3)/Youre A Stud(6)

Glitterato ran suggestively in its debut run,working well and should win this race.Trillion win is not sighted in track after its last run,hence doubtful for place also.Youre A Stud ran good forward races in its last two runs,working well and should place.Atahualpa merits attention due to run benifit,+ve change of shoes,jockey,regular track works,at best can finish second to Glitterato.Rest all does not merit attention.

Race5:Caspian Sea(3)/Star Of Excellence(5)

Caspian sea's last run was suggestive,won lower a race last season authoratively beating Xel,Sundeviceand Hurricane all which have won a race this season,now with +ve switch of jockey gets first preference,should be a good win bet.Star Of Excellence has good chance in this lower set after listless runs in higher class.Winprettybaby will provide R Huges exercise run before the main event.Henrysecret may be fancied due to +ve switch of jockey and shoes,but has beaten poor lot,hence can only hope to place.

Race6:Spearhead(11)/Jacqueline(16)

Main event of the season.Without much ado i would like to shortlist horses which have one a race over 1600+mts or travelled this distance of 2000mts twice,rest all will be ignored.Horses which qualify are:Davenport,Fair option,Sprintstar,Polishpatriot,Spearhead,Captivating,Astralflash and Jacqueline.Out of this we can ignore Davenport and Fairoption for obivous reasons.

Spearhead:Ignore its previous run,on basis of its impressive win in Mumbai where it came from Hopeless position to register a spectacular win it has very good chance to Soothe the pain ,its owner incured due to defeat of his wonder filly in Indian derby.
Sprintstar:Has beaten the best colts,y its chances has to be discounted,will try its best,place looks certain.
Jacqueline:Has done nothing wrong till date,will be there at busy end,with some luck can win.
Captivating:Is not better than Jacqueline,hence can be ignored.
Astralflash:Not better than Spearhead and Captivating,can be ignored.
Polishpatriot:Got a race on platter in last run,cannot make any impression in this bunch,ignore.

My final votes goes to Spearhead followed by Jacqueline and Sprintstar.

Race7:Soberano(2)/Oban(9)

Ldsilva had no luck with his hyd horses,may be this new entry of his stable will provide him a winner here.Oban ran a mighty race in lower class,has handicap advantage and looks good to upset.Lack and load won impressively over weak company,can only hope to place.Bourbanbay has not done anything so impressive that it stands outstanding in this bunch,has to fight it out.Silken thomas is good long shot place bet.

Race8:Spark Of Gold(2)/Star Wave(4)

Ignore last two runs of Spark of gold,has enough class to win this race.Last run of star wave revealed his past form,can do well here.Talk of devil has lost form completely,remains non winner for last 2 years.Equidae is impressive winner of lower class and same feat cannot be expected in this higher class.Motherspride lacks winning punch.Aritos is best suited for 1400mts.Callista is genuine upset horse,cannot be ignored for JP.

Race9:Mediaman(2)/Tablemountain(3)

Mediaman has right credentials to win this race.Table moutain is non winner and non reliable type,cannot be trusted for win.Badgeof honor has lost form,no track indicates its connections unwillingness.Superspear has been consistent in past and can hope to place.

Daysbest:Glitterato(4-3)