Bangalore 30th May selections

Friday, May 29, 2009

Hi all,

Following are my views for saturday races.

Race1:I Fancy You(10)/Mr Ambassador(3)/Gurujosh(1)

I Fancy You:Poor debut and lone track work are indeed strong -ve indications but i would opt it as my first choice on two points,first is inform jockey and other is reputation of trainer who seldom reveals whats upto his sleeves.
Mr Ambassador:Failed to impress in its last two runs,working very very well,should run a good race,place looks certain.
Gurujosh:Bred out of Minnekonda whose another Progeny Bold reply ran very good races at Kolkotta ,is working well,impressed in gate practise,should run a decent race and can win if takes a level jump.
Coorg Honey:Was fancied in first run,working well and with better saddle assistence this time will extend its best.
Spark Of Salerno:Damside suggests speedy display,now running with +ve change of shoes and drawn favourably in innermost box,but lack of track for last 15 days is dampener.
Royal Glint:Unimpressive in all its previous run in strong company,lack of trackwork and weak jockey is clear -ve indication,can be ignored.
Lampon:Poor runs in winter,working regularly but getting beaten by same class horse in final track,can be ignored.
Simply Phenomenal:Poor runs in winter,tracking sparingly,now being tested with "Blks",can be ignored.
Prashastha:Poor runs and under preparation are strong reasons to discounts its chances even for place.
Shubha:Will need this run.

Race2:Flower Alley(6)/Leonardo(4)/One Track Minded(7)

Flower Alley:Ran good races finishing good second to likes of Regal glory and captivating,has nothing to beat in this set except for a mild resistence from Leonardo.
Leonardo:Found Corbetta too tough to handle in its last outing,working well,has benifit of mock race,now with aids of "TS" should run a decent race,has to beat Flower alley.
One Track Minded:Good forward run in its debut,belongs to sporting owner who will be in limelight as season progress,should place.
Vijaysarathi:Owned by sporting owners of Hyd who off late have been investing in expensive blood stock,prepared well,can upset like Miss everywhere.
Arabian Prince:Debut run,working very well but bloodlines suggest it needs longer distance to prove its mettle.
Frozen Fire:Well bred,Ridden by Mrs Lisa jones who failed to impress earlier in her stint as jockey,not seen in tracks,can be ignored.
Awesome Flight,Northern Splendour:Will need this run.

Race3:Time Flies(2)/Hide And Seek(3)/Six Shooter(4)

Time Flies:Both runs of winter were good forward ones ,working well,can handle this set.
Hide And Seek:Tested in Gate practise by Imran chisty who is now declared to ride,should be in fighting line.
Six Shooter:Bred out of Six speed who won many classics which included Fillies trial stakes,1000 Guineas,Multi Million stakes and Second slot in derby,best suited for 1200-1600mts,working very well but not given any gate practise,on class alone it can show clean pair of heals to rest of the runners,but not my type of bet.
Cash Is King:Finished third in unintersting company,not seen in track or pool thereafter,can be ignored.
Brigade's Pride:Jockey Appu returns to racing with this horse,first run with no gate practise,averagely bred,can be ignored.
Moon Memories:Ran easy race in debut,working well and seen regularly in pool,choice of jockey is deterrent.
Sachin,Spark Of Joy:Will need this run.

Race4:Regal Glory(4)/Corbett(3)/Spark Of Jewel(7)

Regal Glory:On debut showed clean pair of heels to rest of runners,in subsequent run was badly squeezed,hence cud not ride to full potential,lack of track work should be ignored as it has been shown in track only twice till date,infact won on debut without any preparation.Its my first choice to win this race.
Corbett:Failed miserably as fav in last outing,now entrusted to its fav jockey who rode him to his sole victory of his carrier,one paced horse,at best can place.
Spark Of Jewel:Cleared maidens easily,not prepared the way it was prepared for last victory,will find this set very hot to handle
Davenport:Winner at parent centre sporting A shoes,now running with steel plates,will not be able to carry this weight.
Desert Realm:Will run easy,ignore.
Duke Of Windsor:Poor last run where it failed to accelerate,now running with -ve change of shoes,can be ignored.
Hidalgo:Looking for class down,ignore.

Race5:Chintz(2)/Rashida(3)/Pinaakini(6)

Chintz:Impressive winner on debut,subsequently ran easy to too good Aboline,working well and should easily win this race.
Rashida:Won well last time,working well,but one cannot trust a filly to carry top weight to victory,at best can play role of bridesmaid.
Pinaakini:Ran consistently in Winter,is fit as evident by track works,place looks certain.
Royal Bank:Ignore -ve change of shoes as its sole win was with "S" shoes,but failed to make any impact in its winter campaign,at best can place in this shorter distance.
Mudeer Power:After clearing maidens with "A" shoes 2 years back,ran listless thru out thereafter,seen regular in pool,can place at longer odds.
Quiet Achiever:Winner with "A" shoes,now running with "S" shoes,can be ignored.
Different Opinion,Master Strategist,Brave And Bold:Failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last 3 outings,can be ignored.
Desert Image,Yes I Can,Cute Angel:Can be ignored even for place.

Race6:Classerville(11)/Aboline(4)/Sparks(12)

Classerville:Impressed most in Mumbai where it lost on post in Juvenile colts stake,has handicap in its favour,will strongly challenge supremacy of Aboline and if does not drift then can surely run away with this race.
Aboline:Winner of juvenile Million,touted as classic type horse,will have to beat classerville who has handicap advantage.
Sparks:Controversial horse,has improved a lot as evident by its last victory,at this feather weight can place.
Undue:Working well and entrusted to apprentice who impressed with his riding skills at Kolkotta,can place as other runners may easy.
In The Zone:Will not be able to carry this weight,ignore.
Super Speed:Hopelessly out of form,not prepared,can be ignored.
Own Voice,Van De Star,Awesome Beauty :Winner with "A" shoes,can be ignored as it looks to have lost form.
India Shining:Not prepared,will run easy in this very tough set.
Spiritofexcellence:-ve change of shoes and absence from track work is clear indication that it is looking for class down.
Raptor Force:Needs hard riding and jockey is medicore,hence may not be able to grace board.

Race7:Mother's Pride(6)/Salsera(11)/Fantabulous Prince(12)

Mother's Pride:Has best credentials to win this race,warms up late but jockey astride is better judge of pace and will extract the best from it.
Salsera:Ignore last failure,working well and can run away to victory if not collared by Mothers pride at post.
Fantabulous Prince:Impressed in its last outing,genuine upset horse.
Milford:Inspite of rough passage finished an impressive third to Reflection of gold,working well,best suited for this distance,should run a good race on hands of Appu.
Green Bax:Front runner drawn in outer box with whipless jockey astride,can place at longer odds.
Southern Charge:Vanquiser of Splendid surprise as 3 year old,chose to ran sparingly picking up races at regular intervals beating quality opposition,top weight and sharp distance may mar its chances.
Dare Don:Does well at Mysore only as evident by all its wins which were recorded at mysore.
Noble Guest:Was my fav horse once,lost form completely,just managed to record two wins in mysore a year back,now with whipless jockey and steel shoes can be ignored.
Flaming Lamborgini:Winner of same age group in lower class,will not be able to make any impact here,at best can place.
Stone Of Destiny:Winner of same age group in lower class,under prepared,can be ignored.
Sugar Ray:May not be able to sustain this distance.
Soberano:Failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last 3 outings,can be ignored.

Race8:Bocconcino(4)/Social Climber(1)/Gentlemansdeal(11)

Social Climber stands tall in this very very poor set,but there are 5 -ve points against it.First is bad riding of jockey,second is inability of fillies to carry top weights ,third is division 2 which generally is won by lower handicap horses,fourth is under preparation and fifth is giving 7.5kgs of weight to rest of the runners.So if it has to loose which horse has chance to beat it?.Following horses have some credibility.
Bocconcino:Easy runs in winter,can extend its best here in this very very poor set.
Garafluid:Ridden by start to finish specialist,will try to run away.
Gentlemansdeal:Running with +ve change of shoes,regular in pool,likes to run in front,may hold in till end.

Shortlisted Betting pattern.

Daysbest value bet:Motherspride(7-6)

Treble:Flower Alley(2-6)/Chintz(5-2)/Classerville(6-11)

Win kainchi/Place roll:Time Flies(3-2)/Regal Glory(4-4)/Mother's Pride(7-6)

3 comments:

Aswin Patel May 30, 2009 at 3:30 AM  

Vinod, Regal Glory does come as a possible winner when we take star of marmalade as a common factor , however I have doubts of its staying power , it looked as the horses were overtaking it and that could only happen if it was tired. So the extra 200 mts may not help, Flower Alley is not showing the prep/workouts/fitness and hence becomes an EAT, just giving my 2 cents . Chintz and royal bank is a JODI only race, actually for those who can see the paddock form and find Royal bank good a place bet would be better than a win on Chintz Odds wise.

bihari May 30, 2009 at 6:36 AM  

1st race I fancy you no.is 10
kindly correct.

Vincero May 30, 2009 at 9:08 AM  

Hi Ashwin bhai,

Flower alley gave 6 work outs in last 10 days with final track given by Imran chisty,so i dont think it should have fitness problem.

Regal glory's dam Moment of glory was best suited for mile+ races and won races of longer distance which included Classic Golconda Derby stakes,Golconda Oaks,1000 Guineas.We just cannot conclude on its last run that it may not be able to sustain itself over this distance.There is no worthy opposition to strongly challenge her.Corbett is one paced,Davenport and Duke of windsor are running with -ve change of shoes and Spark of jewel is not prepared well.

I do agree with ur view that it would be prudent to back Royal bank in place rather than Chintz for win.I missed out the fact that Chintz is filly and carrying top weight.

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