Mumbai 11th April

Friday, April 10, 2009

Hi all,

Card looks good and competitive.


Race1:Nonios(6)/Crescendo(1)/Solor(2)

Nonios:Was fancied last Sunday on basis of impressive final preparatory gallop,failed and facing Enquiry for the same,was badly hampered near 800mts and was not ridden properly in straight,can do well here.
Crescendo:Ignore all its run in higher class this season and of Pune,won a race at identical handicap in same class,looks to be fit,will be involved in final finish.
Solor:Failed as fav in last race,runs wee bit lethargic thru out,one gets the feeling that it does not settle well,cannot be backed with confidence for win,at best can place.
Persian Power:Can place in this shorter distance.
Beacon Light:Does not take proper jump,no consistent form,may place at longer odds.
Devilitto:Neither in track nor pool for long time,can be ignored.
Nymph:In its debut was slowly off and showed some movement at fag end of race,in subsequent run was withdrawn due to stiffening of hindquarters,unimpressive in mock race, lone track and not on Threadmill after that does not inspire much confidence and it would not be wise to back "Unknown and Unproved" horses just on basis of bloodlines or big names attached with it.
Morality:Hopeless performances in higher category,not seen on tracks for last 2 months,sparingly seen in pool,can be safely ignored.
Modesty:Failed in own age group,neither in track nor pool for last one month,a non winner even after 20 runs,can be ignored.

Race2:Slickkit(6)/Golden Kingdom(3)/Shabdeez(5)

Slickkit:Heads and shoulders above the rest on basis of its runs of Pune where it ran very good races along classic horses,suffered from Neurological problems in last run,well rested and if race fit then can keep the field at safe distance.
Golden Kingdom:Gave very good forward run over 1400mts last time,its 4th in race no 210 of Pune merits strong attention as it finished ahead of Centre of attention,Adamslaw and Double delite all of which have won race this season very easily.Working well and should be involved in final finish.
Shabdeez:Working very impressively,last run was seen moving very well inspite of jockey not extending,in Pune finished credible third behind star of attraction,Moonstorm{both winners of 40-66 class this season} ahead of Tattenhoe{winner} merits strong attention,only worry is that it came under Stewards scanner in last run for not running on merits,will it extend its best immediately in next run?
Courage Under Fire:Fluent winner of lower class,last run was very impressive,looks to be race fit,has tough set to handle.
Sudden Impact:Winner of very poor bunch in Pune in same class,all its run this season were unextended in higher category,cannot sustain this distance,can be ignored for win.
Fluent Victory:Neither in track nor pool for long time,can be ignored.
Suavemente:Will need this run,ignore.
Addiction:Very difficult to make an impression in this very set.
Blades Of Glory:Not better than Shabdeez and other runners,looks very difficult,not fully prepared.
Real Dream:Has problem of developing sore legs,cannot be backed,ignore.

Race3:Il Divo(2)/Successor(5)/Zarzaitine(7){Edited at 1 am }

Il Divo:Easy winner over not so impressive company,working well,has good chance
Successor:In last season as Maiden beaten likes of Aurora Aurealis,Kiara,Queensguest and in this season won impressively beating Divine,Hefitiz{both winners},running in most ideal distance,not prepared as it was prepared for its last win.
Zarzaitine:Working impressively,winner of lower class in opening event of season over very weak company,failed in its own age group,failed to ordinary horses in Pune,may be fancied due to feather weight,but has no class to beat Successor and Ildivo.
Aurora Aurealis:Working very impressively,in same class laboured hard to win a race over a not so impressive bunch,endowed with good initial speed and will try to run away,but will find this set very tough to crack.
Premier Queen:Impressive winner in lower class,can place at best in this higher set.
Alvida:Poor performance this season,except for a win in maidens set,did nothing substantial,not race fit,can be ignored.
The Rising:Failed more than twice in same age group,winner 2 years back,will find it difficult to make any impact.


Race4:Smokin Aces(4)/Lyrical Lass(9)/Whispering Willows(11)

Smokin Aces:First run,well prepared, good gate practise and impressive final gallop makes it one of the contender,can win on debut.
Lyrical Lass:Finished unextended third to stable mate Forestflair in its debut run,has very good chance to register a win.
Whispering Willows:Shaped like a winner before being beaten by hot market fancy Arts,ran very good race in its debut in strong company,can win.
Azul:First run,ran last in mock race,may need this run.
Battle Fury:Good second to superior Blue danube,working regularly,will be involved in final finish.
Forward Charge:Full brother to Spitz,not fully prepared,will need this run.
Tudor Regent:Has run benifit,last run was in tough company where it veered out badly near bend,was moving well in final stages,can only hope to place.
Blessings,Sentiments:Averagely bred,not prepared well for this race,will need this run.
Cinquecento:Nice educative run,needs lot of polishing.
Hickory:Averagely bred, prepared well for this race,can place at longer odds.


Race5:Cest Bon(2)/Ecstatica(9)/Tyumen(3)

Cest Bon:Ignore its last run in 2000Guineas,earlier toyed with opposition winning in very good timings,working regularly,shud win.
Ecstatica:Ignore its last run,earlier won a race on debut itself,working well,will follow Cestbon home.
Tyumen:Failed in not so impressive company,did nothing exp for a win in maidens class,can be ignored for win.
Fire Vault:Winner of lower class in very poor timings,at best can place.
Fire Within:Winner of poor bunch,may not be able to carry this weight over this distance.
Bonny Light:Stablemate of Tyumen,failed in own age group,can be ignored.
Sharp Memory:Not race fit,won a race 2 1/2 years back as maidens,can be ignored.
Eagle Mountain:Stablemate of Tyumen,failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last three outings.
Adam's Pleasure:Winner of same age group in poor timings,can place.
Palermo:Failed twice in its own age group,still a non winner,ignore.
Tommy Carmichael:Failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last three
outings.
Morpheus:4th entry of Faisal abbas in this race,Failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last three outings.
Blau Himmel:Surprise winner in lower class,its last run in same class was not impressive,can be ignored.


Race6:Redromeo(7)/Spirituall(8)

Redromeo:Working regularly for last 7 days with "Blks" and sporting the same for race,has beaten very good horses,only worry is the distance which may be wee bit sharp for its comfort.
Spirituall:Ignore its last run where it ran in shorter distance,has very good chance to score an encore over this favourable distance,has only to take care of Redromeo.
Shyboy:Long in tooth,running good races this season,entrusted to better rider this time,will be involved in final finish.
Call To Arms:All its run in this season where in longer distance in which it was prominent till bend,can place in this shorter distance.
Balthazaar:Tracking well,not so impressive this season,registered wins in poor company in pune,at best can place only.
Avec Plaisir:Never won a race carrying this weight,needs hard riding,whipless jockey will not be able to extract the best.
River Dancer:Best suited for 1000mts,never won a race carrying this weight,not seen in tracks nor pool for long time,ignore.
Escravos:Won races at bottom weight,will not be able to sustain this distance.
Covenant:Best suited for 1000mts,won a race in its own age group cutting poor timings,cannot make any impression in this set.
Major Roberts,Enceladus:Short of class,can be ignored.

Race7:Forest Flair(1)/Topkapi(5)

Forest Flair:Fluent winner last time,beaten only by Versaki which went on to prove her mettle by winning Million race,can sustain this distance.
Topkapi:Yet another Bangalore challenge,won authoratively in Home centre,gave one impressive Mockrace,much will depend on how it adjusts to the prevailing hot climate and long straight of mumbai.
Bourbon Bay:Working very well with "Blks" and sporting the same for race,it can be "Doosra"
Mighty crusader:Good forward runner in Multimillion race,may have benifitted a lot by that outing,can hope to place.
Arts:Failed as fav in first run,last run laboured hard to register a win over weak company,ran green in both starts,cannot be trusted.
Sea Of Kisses:Troublesome manners,needs lot of polishing,ignore.
Amore Mio:Impressive winner last time,but looks to be under prepared for this race,ignore.
River Minstrel:May need this run,prepared well.
Breeze And i :First run,not prepared well.

Race8:Patek Philippe(5)/Catalyst(2)

Patek Philippe:Was seen gaining places in its last run over 1400mts,earlier won a race over 1600mts by distance,working very well and should not have much difficulty in winning this race.
Catalyst:Vanquisher of Chios{won over strong company last week},careful observation reveals in that race all runners carried a over weight of 5 kgs,hence catalyst cud beat tiring horses,here the pace will be hot due to presence of many front runners,looks difficult to make an impression.
Mysterious Star:However good the horse might be,i do not prefer whipless jockey in this distance of 1600mts.
Gentle Knight:Will not be able to carry this weight over this distance.
Pretty Commission:Likes to run in front,may not be able till end.
Buster:Long lay off,will need this run,first run after clearing maidens facing strong opposition,ignore.
True Elegance:Failed to beat half of the field of same class even once in its last three
outings.
Blade Runner:Cannot sustain till end.
Tsesebe:Not so impressive record to merit attention,ignore.

Race9:Flo Nightingale(2)/Tromos(3)

Flo Nightingale
:Won two races in April 2007 in identical distance,subsequent runs were in higher category,now again back to where it belonged,can upset.
Tromos:Running after long lay off,impressed in mock race,working well with Blks and sporting the same for race,will have to sustain itself till end.
Saddlers Rule:Failed to deliver in first outing,now running with aid of "CNB" and "TS",working regularly,still iam not impressed by its winning chances,there may be generally feeling that Vijaymallya may be awarded this race as he is chief sponspor,i do not believe in that logic.
Dutch Art:Non winner till to date,whipless jockey.
Es Sider,Magical Mantra,Oriental Jewel:Non winner till to date,underprepared.
Shanghai Gal:Cannot sustain till end.
Nara:Non winner even after 16 runs,very poor runs,ignore.

Daysbest:Slickkit(2-6)

Winroll:Slickkit(2-6)/Cest Bon(5-2)/Redromeo(6-7)/Forest Flair(7-1){Edited at 1 am }

Kainchi:Nonios(1-6)/Il Divo(2)/Patek Philippe(8-5)/Flo Nightingale(9-2)
Have a nice day

Vinodvyas

2 comments:

Aswin Patel April 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM  

Vinod ,Devitto is not on track but was given runs, in this case it is enough,I am not saying it will win , but that it should not be discarded on that grounds. With respect to Slikkit and Succesor , I would advise paying attention to the paddock looks, coat and behaviour , successor has not raced for long and was given only one small workout something maybe wrong.
Also IMO Mighty Cruasder should not be ignored as it has a drop in weights.- Aswin Patel

Vincero April 11, 2009 at 12:36 AM  

Hi Ashwin bhai,

Nice that u read entire post carefully.

Abt devillito,iam not much impressed by its winning chances.As a fav with Appu astride could not even finish on board,only visible pattern seen is front running,CAN WIN or MAY WIN.

Slickkit was suffering from Neurological problem in last run and had to take mandatory 4 weeks rest,started working exactly after 4 weeks,jockey declared to ride boosted my confidence on its winning chances.

Successor i do agree with ur point,it has not been prepared as it should have been.Swimming exercise is regular but definetely does not make up for track work.Thanks a lot for pointing that error.

As far as Mighty crusader is considered it definetely has very good chance,but i go with "Performers" rather than "expectors"

Vinodvyas

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